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Post by davidpgowinghtafc on Apr 15, 2014 21:57:49 GMT 1
As it stands at this moment Town needs 6 points to be mathematically safe, since Millwall's GD is far worse than ours.
I doubt that Town can get 6 points so we have to rely on those below us dropping points. As there are 7 teams below us it is not unreasonable to expect at least three of them losing enough points to save us.
But, I still remember 2001!
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Tinpot
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Post by Tinpot on Apr 15, 2014 22:13:26 GMT 1
Goal difference aside, we "only" need 6 points because Charlton still have to play Blackpool & they can't both win that game.
I take back what I said about Barnsley being doomed - I honestly thought they'd lose tonight. I still think they'll be relegated, but I'm not so keen to write them off after tonight's result. On balance I think tonight's result was probably good for us due to keeping another team below us, and keeping Charlton keen enough to fight for a win on the last day v Blackpool. Could do with something from this Friday's match. I would settle for others losing though.
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Post by stinkypete on Apr 15, 2014 22:27:04 GMT 1
I might be wrong but I'm sure we were in a far worse position in 2001 than we are now! If we don't stay up from this position I couldn't see us recovering for a long long time!
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Post by ritchie on Apr 15, 2014 22:31:48 GMT 1
I might be wrong but I'm sure we were in a far worse position in 2001 than we are now! If we don't stay up from this position I couldn't see us recovering for a long long time! Yep - posted it the other day, but at this point in that season we were just 1 point off the relegation zone. you can see it all here game by game www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one/2000-2001/table/2001-04-18
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Post by einediemengedochsen on Apr 15, 2014 23:21:00 GMT 1
I might be wrong but I'm sure we were in a far worse position in 2001 than we are now! If we don't stay up from this position I couldn't see us recovering for a long long time! Yep - posted it the other day, but at this point in that season we were just 1 point off the relegation zone. you can see it all here game by game www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one/2000-2001/table/2001-04-18Jeez - Stockport and Grimsby!
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Post by Stewpot on Apr 16, 2014 10:14:09 GMT 1
Imperative we are at least a point above Blackpool and Charlton before the last day games. With our superior G/D no chance for them to organise a 0-0 stitch up. Then two from Yeovil, Barnsley, Millwall in my opinion. I think Donny and Brum will have just about enough to avoid being dragged in.
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Post by HuddsTerrier on Apr 16, 2014 10:37:36 GMT 1
So the position is this (assuming we don’t get another point). Although I think we’ll still sneak a win somewhere If Millwall lose two of their last four games they can’t catch us (unless there’s a 21 goal swing) If Barnsley lose two of their last four games they can’t catch us. Even if they win two and draw one it won’t be enough (unless there’s a 19 goal swing) If Yeovil lose or draw any of their last four games they can’t catch us (due to goal difference) In terms of form (last 8 games) stats.football365.co.uk/dom/ENG/D1/oform.html and based on current run rate if the season ends with similar points per game the table will look (taking the high end estimate for those below and the low end estimate for Town) … Doncaster 48 points (5 points from last 4 games) Brum – 47 points (3-4 points from last 4 games) … assume Brum go ahead of us as we lose three and they win one and only lose two moving their GD ahead of ours Town – 47 points (1 point from last 4 games) Charlton 47 points (6 points from last 5 games) Blackpool – 46 (3-4 points from last 4 games) ********************** Millwall 45 points (5 points from last 4 games … being very generous with my rounding) Barnsley 44 points (5 points from last 4 games) Yeovil 40 points (4 points from last 4 games … being very generous with my rounding)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 16, 2014 10:42:04 GMT 1
It'll look like...
Town Charlton Birmingham Blackpool Doncaster Millwall Barnsley Yeovil
And Town will be around SEVEN points above relegation.
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Post by kennyk2 on Apr 16, 2014 12:40:21 GMT 1
As it stands at this moment Town needs 6 points to be mathematically safe, since Millwall's GD is far worse than ours. I doubt that Town can get 6 points so we have to rely on those below us dropping points. As there are 7 teams below us it is not unreasonable to expect at least three of them losing enough points to save us. But, I still remember 2001!I know that this is a bit Otium, but at the time I was in Tibet tuning into the World Service desperately trying to pick up the Town result from the radio which was badly fading in and out on shortwave. I got the result (was it against Birmingham?) and thought Town had won 2-1. Only when I got back to Kathmandhu to check at an internet cafe did I realise that we had lost 2-1 and been relegated. Big shock - how on earth did all those results conspire to go against us I will never know.
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Post by araucaria on Apr 16, 2014 12:55:55 GMT 1
Imperative we are at least a point above Blackpool and Charlton before the last day games. With our superior G/D no chance for them to organise a 0-0 stitch up. Then two from Yeovil, Barnsley, Millwall in my opinion. I think Donny and Brum will have just about enough to avoid being dragged in. Even better, Stewpot, we can have one of Blackpool & Charlton level on points with us just as long as the other has at least a point less.
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Post by Stewpot on Apr 16, 2014 22:24:05 GMT 1
I have read with interest all the scenarios posted about how the season will pan out, and surprise, surprise - not one has us facing the drop.
However these end of season encounters yield some strange results. Depends on a lot of factors, are the bottom sides facing teams with something to play for, indeed if those teams have already made the play-offs they will not go hell for leather, would more than likely save themselves for the big games coming up. I still worry that the bottom teams will collect quite a few points, out of all reasoning to their points per game average so far.
As for ourselves, we might just get lucky. After Brighton who have all to play for, Yeovil may then be gone ( bit like Bristol City away last season near the end ),Leicester hopefully have just secured the title and wont be that motivated. Finally if all else fails and we need a last day result Watford have nothing at all to play for.
What can possibly go wrong ?
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ram
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Post by ram on Apr 17, 2014 9:53:52 GMT 1
As it stands at this moment Town needs 6 points to be mathematically safe, since Millwall's GD is far worse than ours. I doubt that Town can get 6 points so we have to rely on those below us dropping points. As there are 7 teams below us it is not unreasonable to expect at least three of them losing enough points to save us. But, I still remember 2001!I know that this is a bit Otium, but at the time I was in Tibet tuning into the World Service desperately trying to pick up the Town result from the radio which was badly fading in and out on shortwave. I got the result (was it against Birmingham?) and thought Town had won 2-1. Only when I got back to Kathmandhu to check at an internet cafe did I realise that we had lost 2-1 and been relegated. Big shock - how on earth did all those results conspire to go against us I will never know. Nothing as exotic as you kenny,but I was on Holiday on the solway firth,and couldn,t believe the scores coming in on the TV ..right ruined my week,s hol,did that
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Post by Carlito Brigante on Apr 17, 2014 16:13:36 GMT 1
I know that this is a bit Otium, but at the time I was in Tibet tuning into the World Service desperately trying to pick up the Town result from the radio which was badly fading in and out on shortwave. I got the result (was it against Birmingham?) and thought Town had won 2-1. Only when I got back to Kathmandhu to check at an internet cafe did I realise that we had lost 2-1 and been relegated. Big shock - how on earth did all those results conspire to go against us I will never know. Nothing as exotic as you kenny,but I was on Holiday on the solway firth,and couldn,t believe the scores coming in on the TV ..right ruined my week,s hol,did that I was in the ground watching it all unfold Wasn't much fun there either
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