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Post by runner76 on Oct 5, 2015 10:06:17 GMT 1
I always think that 10 games in to a season is a fair judgement on how the team are doing and you can usually start to get a fair idea on how the league format is shaping up. Well, 10 games in, this is so far our worst start to a championship in terms of points haul, with the last four seasons looking as follows: Season Won Lost Draw Total| 2015/16 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | | 2014/15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | | 2013/14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | | 2012/13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
The least wins and points so far of our recent Championship tenure. Clearly, where we finish after the last 10 games is a lot more important than the first 10, but the worrying trend here is one of 'downwards' year on year. Something tells me this could be a relegation battle.... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 10:13:23 GMT 1
That's progress for you.
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Post by kennyk2 on Oct 5, 2015 10:19:28 GMT 1
Quite a small sample size of 10 matches - pretty meaningless. However, what you would need to do would be to devise a system for seeding the teams in accordance with their strength in the division. You could possibly do this by bookies odds, how much they'd spent, their position in previous seasons etc etc. This would give a weighting figure that you incorporate into the figures for teams played in the first 10 games for all seasons. Good luck to anyone who has the time to crunch the data.
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Post by runner76 on Oct 5, 2015 10:25:46 GMT 1
It is a small sample size, but 10 games don't lie.....
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Oct 5, 2015 10:30:25 GMT 1
It is a small sample size, but 10 games don't lie..... I remember 10 games telling me swap shop was coming to greenhead park and the cameras were then going to Leeds road for the Pompey game ... So your wrong |
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Post by kennyk2 on Oct 5, 2015 10:40:50 GMT 1
It is a small sample size, but 10 games don't lie..... ... as long as you add some kind of weighting. Then of course there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Working with statistics, I can make them tell me whatever I want them to, as long as nobody looks too closely  |
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Post by runner76 on Oct 5, 2015 10:41:59 GMT 1
It is a small sample size, but 10 games don't lie..... I remember 10 games telling me swap shop was coming to greenhead park and the cameras were then going to Leeds road for the Pompey game ... So your wrong damn. I missed that one... |
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rocky
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Post by rocky on Oct 5, 2015 10:44:08 GMT 1
Normally I'd agree that 10 games in is usually a good barometer. Think it's a bit different with Town this season though, because the current side is somewhat different to the side that started at Hull. We certainly look more of a 'team' now than we did in those first few games.
Overall, I think we've now got the makings of a reasonable side, but there's one obvious area which is the reason we're 18th rather than higher. We've got to find goals from the strikers, whether that be from the current players, or the odd loan addition. If that happens we'll be fine, if not I can't see us moving away from the bottom end of the table all season.
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Oct 5, 2015 10:44:48 GMT 1
I remember 10 games telling me swap shop was coming to greenhead park and the cameras were then going to Leeds road for the Pompey game ... So your wrong damn. I missed that one... You missed Huddersfield 1 Portsmouth 3 in 1979 ? There were 57000 there and it was 14000 people's first ever game ( though unfortunately not cheggers or Maggie philbins ) |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 10:48:02 GMT 1
I always think that 10 games in to a season is a fair judgement on how the team are doing and you can usually start to get a fair idea on how the league format is shaping up. Well, 10 games in, this is so far our worst start to a championship in terms of points haul, with the last four seasons looking as follows: Season Won Lost Draw Total| 2015/16 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | | 2014/15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | | 2013/14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | | 2012/13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
The least wins and points so far of our recent Championship tenure. Clearly, where we finish after the last 10 games is a lot more important than the first 10, but the worrying trend here is one of 'downwards' year on year. Something tells me this could be a relegation battle.... Far too early to judge, at this point last season Bournemouth were just one point ahead of Millwall! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 10:53:59 GMT 1
I always think that 10 games in to a season is a fair judgement on how the team are doing and you can usually start to get a fair idea on how the league format is shaping up. Well, 10 games in, this is so far our worst start to a championship in terms of points haul, with the last four seasons looking as follows: Season Won Lost Draw Total| 2015/16 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | | 2014/15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | | 2013/14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | | 2012/13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
The least wins and points so far of our recent Championship tenure. Clearly, where we finish after the last 10 games is a lot more important than the first 10, but the worrying trend here is one of 'downwards' year on year. Something tells me this could be a relegation battle.... Hold on, we've won less games in our first 10 fixtures each season, but with each season we've finished higher in the table, so if that trend continues we should finish between 13th - 10th. In all seriousness though, if we just think about the actual performances so far this season, on the whole we haven't been far away at all from having 9pts more than we currently have, only the lack of a striker a semi decent striker has held us back. In all our games so fat I think the only genuinely shite performances were against Wolves and Notts County in the cup. Personally I feel better about our chances of survival now than I did 5 games ago, but I still think this is gonna be one hard slog of a season. If we are going stay in this division then right now two things need happen: 1. Get a decent Striker in 2. The Club needs to do everything they can to get back those fans that they have pissed off with their shambolic ticket pricing. I don't how they're going to do that, but is gonna take more than a few offers on matches most people ain't bothered about going to. |
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Post by benhomly on Oct 5, 2015 11:08:17 GMT 1
Normally I'd agree that 10 games in is usually a good barometer. Think it's a bit different with Town this season though, because the current side is somewhat different to the side that started at Hull. We certainly look more of a 'team' now than we did in those first few games. Overall, I think we've now got the makings of a reasonable side, but there's one obvious area which is the reason we're 18th rather than higher. We've got to find goals from the strikers, whether that be from the current players, or the odd loan addition. If that happens we'll be fine, if not I can't see us moving away from the bottom end of the table all season. We've only got one striker but he doesn't play because he doesn't fit into the system. Like you say we need a loan addition because unless we address that very soon we're doomed. |
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Post by Beech's Nuts on Oct 5, 2015 11:19:41 GMT 1
I always think that 10 games in to a season is a fair judgement on how the team are doing and you can usually start to get a fair idea on how the league format is shaping up. Well, 10 games in, this is so far our worst start to a championship in terms of points haul, with the last four seasons looking as follows: Season Won Lost Draw Total| 2015/16 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | | 2014/15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | | 2013/14 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | | 2012/13 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
The least wins and points so far of our recent Championship tenure. Clearly, where we finish after the last 10 games is a lot more important than the first 10, but the worrying trend here is one of 'downwards' year on year. Something tells me this could be a relegation battle.... Hold on, we've won less games in our first 10 fixtures each season, but with each season we've finished higher in the table, so if that trend continues we should finish between 13th - 10th. In all seriousness though, if we just think about the actual performances so far this season, on the whole we haven't been far away at all from having 9pts more than we currently have, only the lack of a striker a semi decent striker has held us back. In all our games so fat I think the only genuinely shite performances were against Wolves and Notts County in the cup. Personally I feel better about our chances of survival now than I did 5 games ago, but I still think this is gonna be one hard slog of a season. If we are going stay in this division then right now two things need happen: 1. Get a decent Striker in 2. The Club needs to do everything they can to get back those fans that they have pissed off with their shambolic ticket pricing. I don't how they're going to do that, but is gonna take more than a few offers on matches most people ain't bothered about going to. A few clean sheets would give us more chance of winning too. |
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Post by wtd on Oct 5, 2015 11:39:11 GMT 1
Doesn't it depend on how good the opposition are in the first ten games?
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Melc
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Post by Melc on Oct 5, 2015 11:56:21 GMT 1
Doesn't it depend on how good the opposition are in the first ten games? We will find out in the next 9 games! |
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Post by galpharm2400 on Oct 5, 2015 12:01:19 GMT 1
Doesn't it depend on how good the opposition are in the first ten games? we give goals away to anyone, so far.. good or bad, top or bottom.. there was no reason to drop back on saturday after a good first 15/20 but we did.. obviously missed opportunities are going to kill you when you cant stop conceeding.. free shots and tap ins..after ball watching and running away.. good news is that a few teams are struggling badly.. we are by no means one of the poorest sides.. |
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Post by goodshot (FGS) on Oct 5, 2015 12:05:10 GMT 1
It is a small sample size, but 10 games don't lie..... Its true that they don't lie for the last 10 games. |
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Post by villageidiot on Oct 5, 2015 12:37:47 GMT 1
10 games is a decent sample.
A point a game = suggests relegation struggle
Our current preferred front 4 of Miller/Bunn/Carayol and Scannel = 2 goals = definite relegation struggle
Need 30/35 goals from the front 4 - and of these 4 Scannel and Miller will never contribute double figures - Scannel isnt at double figures in Town career goals .. needs one of them to get 20 .. cant see that can anyone?
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bizkit
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Post by bizkit on Oct 5, 2015 12:45:29 GMT 1
Doesn't it depend on how good the opposition are in the first ten games? Indeed, totally agree. While 10 games can be a barometer and gauge of where the team stand, we're not in the relegation zone. Others under us will struggle more then us IMO. I do agree that we have had better starts before and they maybe helped us in the past. But it a different team this year, more leadership and experience I feel. No doubt we will have a struggle, but it is to expected in this league, but we will be OK at the backend of the season. |
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Post by Skint Terriers on Oct 5, 2015 13:00:24 GMT 1
Can't see us going down tbh there are at least 3 teams in the league worse than us
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Post by Floyds on Oct 5, 2015 13:07:21 GMT 1
18th is about right, which I'd definitely take if offered right now.
Against the back drop of player sales and the signing of short term loans as replacements, Powell will have done a commendable job if he keeps us up again.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 13:20:59 GMT 1
Ten game barometer has been pretty consistent for many seasons & is always something that sets my expectations. There will always be a small handful of teams that buck the trend & either slip away from the top or accelerate from the bottom. However the close nature of the leagues also factors in nowadays so it does appear as though the 10 game barometer is not as reliable.
Still think we'll be OK this yr, not that far off a reasonable team and the last 2 seasons have not seen us ship goals or always lose the the 'big boys' as we were prone to when first promoted.
I suppose the disappointing thing for many is that we've not been able to kick on and challenge at the top as we did in L1, but this is a whole new financial playing field we're up against here, so that stabilising period may last longer than some folks have the patience for. I'm not going to criticise those folks too much as it generally tends to be age that dictates your expectation levels as a fan, but whilst youth can be forgiven for a lack of patience the ones who appear to be a little older but equally impatient should grow up a bit & stop using some sort of troll based agenda in some of their posts...
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Post by detox on Oct 5, 2015 13:50:16 GMT 1
Or...you could say after 10 games..
2012/13 league position 10th, points above drop zone 9
2013/14...9th, 9 points above
2014/15.. 18th, 4 points above
2015/16...18th, 2 points above
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Post by gledholt terrier on Oct 5, 2015 13:54:02 GMT 1
Or...you could say after 10 games.. 2012/13 league position 10th, points above drop zone 9 2013/14...9th, 9 points above 2014/15.. 18th, 4 points above 2015/16...18th, 2 points above The nearest we came to relegation was the season we started best then? |
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Post by detox on Oct 5, 2015 14:04:56 GMT 1
Or...you could say after 10 games.. 2012/13 league position 10th, points above drop zone 9 2013/14...9th, 9 points above 2014/15.. 18th, 4 points above 2015/16...18th, 2 points above The nearest we came to relegation was the season we started best then? It's a funny old game....... |
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Post by runner76 on Oct 5, 2015 14:10:45 GMT 1
The nearest we came to relegation was the season we started best then? It's a funny old game....... It certainly is..... |
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Post by Doc Halladay 32 on Oct 5, 2015 14:22:18 GMT 1
I think it's fair to say that the only definitive success predictor can be made after playing the other 23 divisional opponents both home and away and if we're not in the bottom three then we won't get relegated As Rocky has suggested we have a largely different team and squad available for the tenth game than we had for the first game at Hull, so this squad hasn't had anywhere near 10 games together. We will have days when it goes well, the second half against Bolton and times when its the opposite, the second half at Wolves. Nothing I've seen so far suggests to me that we are destined for anything other than a stay for another year at this level, which given Town's history during my 40 odd years watching them I would happily take. |
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Post by AndySk on Oct 5, 2015 14:38:42 GMT 1
Shit and mainly boring with the odd positive
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2015 14:44:58 GMT 1
Another struggle of a season then. Figures.
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Post by detox on Oct 5, 2015 14:53:10 GMT 1
Shit and mainly boring with the odd positive I can live with bad results, but what does it for me..and what stops me from going is the number of times I left the JSS feeling cheated. I know we've had some good patches in games and all that,but the regularity of the dire effort is just too much for me to risk coughing up my hard earned. I don't particularly expect silky skills and Lionel Messi type goals every game, but I do expect effort..lots of it. There are excuses why things go wrong, but no excuses ever for a total lack of running, chasing, closing down and getting stuck in...these lads are fit as fiddlesticks...they train most days..ffs. When Town can deliver on maximum effort, I will come down and pay my money to watch..whatever league we are in (almost..). AND, as an afterthought, if we can combine maximum effort with silky skills, I'll happily pay £30 to watch that. |
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