brispie
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Post by brispie on Sept 15, 2011 16:05:35 GMT 1
It's a mindset that can be difficult to change. I was gosmacked when I saw stats that said that 83% of businesses in Bristol are only 1 employee. I genuinely didn't realise that was the case. Especially that only 3% have over 100 employees.
Hang on AB, a 3rd have got previous. From what the bbc were saying today 25% have committed more than 10 crimes. Persistant offenders should of course be dealt with appropriately. I've never said anything differently. I have just had the feeling throughout this that people have been imprisoned to make a point rather than to punish the crime suitably.
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owlie
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Post by owlie on Sept 15, 2011 16:09:42 GMT 1
Unilever employ inept wankers.
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ab
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Post by ab on Sept 15, 2011 16:58:45 GMT 1
No, 3/4 have previous, a third of them have been inside. The 3/4 with any previous convictions average 15 previous convictions each.
Even if you consider only convictions resulting in a prison sentence to be "real" that's way above the prevalence of ex-prisoners in society generally and almost certainly way higher than the proportion of poor people who have spent time in jail.
Although, if you consider only jail time to be a real conviction, it rather supports the view that anything less than a custodial sentence would not be any punishment at all for being involved in the riots and looting.
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Post by markelt on Sept 15, 2011 17:10:04 GMT 1
It's a mindset that can be difficult to change. I was gosmacked when I saw stats that said that 83% of businesses in Bristol are only 1 employee. I genuinely didn't realise that was the case. Especially that only 3% have over 100 employees. Hang on AB, a 3rd have got previous. From what the bbc were saying today 25% have committed more than 10 crimes. Persistant offenders should of course be dealt with appropriately. I've never said anything differently. I have just had the feeling throughout this that people have been imprisoned to make a point rather than to punish the crime suitably. I have written a number of articles about it and the figures are astonishing. Most people nowadays work for very small businesses. Relatively few work for major corporations.
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Sept 16, 2011 9:26:23 GMT 1
As I understand it though, that is actually only a small proportion of those currently going through the judicial system, so a lot of assumptions are being made at the moment.
Am I right though that most have not been convicted of rioting?
Markymark - Are you sure most? A small number of very big businesses account for lots more people than lots and lots of one man bands. Bristol City Council for example employ something like 15,000 people if you include schools. There are about 18,000 businesses in Bristol, so it would only take a few other major employers to outstrip the one man bands.
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daleylama
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Post by daleylama on Sept 16, 2011 10:20:13 GMT 1
Most of those convicted have been done for burgalry, not rioting.
Which kinda re-enforces the viewpoint that it was a bunch of thieving scrotes rather than some idiological uprising against Cameron's Britain. As does the fact that most charged already had previous. As does having a pair of eyes to see.
The disturbances are actually the fault of prisons for not re-integrating these poor souls who have previous, oh yes indeedy.
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Sept 16, 2011 11:09:04 GMT 1
You see what I'm hearing from Daley is what makes me despair of this country.
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Post by turtle on Sept 16, 2011 11:18:17 GMT 1
I think a denbocount might be appropriate but I can't be arsed
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Post by oldhamsheridan on Sept 16, 2011 11:39:10 GMT 1
Isn't the lack of rioting a Police related thing?
If it is called a riot, then the Police are liable for the insurance, if it isn't then it goes down to the insurance companies of those burglarised.
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Post by denby on Sept 16, 2011 13:25:32 GMT 1
whoop whoop pensions, life expectancy increased massively but no one bothered to factor it in 'til it was too late. final salary pensions are far, far too expensive and the regulators should have realised this years ago. career average, on the other hand, is the only way d.b. will survive. d.c. will provide next to nothing for your average josephine
i dread to think what pensioners (us) in 30 (thirty) years time will get, next to sweet f.a. from the state with a similar amount from occupational schemes. it's a good job people didn't take out 30-35 year mortgages and the like, oh. the future grey brigade will be in a bad way
still, it's quite mild out today
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Post by keepmoving on Sept 16, 2011 13:59:28 GMT 1
Don't forget the Investment Wankers (b) frittering away money by gambling on dubious markets. Then again the politicians wont do feck all about it cos when THEY retire they'll have a nice fat salary at these said institutions. Wonder where all the pension funds have gone? To the big Slot machine that is Finance.
I'll be a pensioner in 25 years time and fully expect to be well and truly screwed, whereas Mr Cameron will be sat in his ivory tower with his scummy politician friends laughing at us all.
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ab
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Post by ab on Sept 16, 2011 14:01:26 GMT 1
Isn't the lack of rioting a Police related thing? If it is called a riot, then the Police are liable for the insurance, if it isn't then it goes down to the insurance companies of those burglarised. True - I imagine the Police will argue that their liability only extends to covering damage from the riot rather than subsequent burglary. I haven't seen any news about how many people have claimed (there's a very short 2 week period in which claims are allowed).
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ab
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Post by ab on Sept 16, 2011 14:33:18 GMT 1
Best pension most MPs will get is their MP one based on the Principal Civil Service Pension scheme but with a much quicker accrual rate. Very best pensions for those who have (IIRC) been in Parliament for 10 years and been a Minister for over year (nasty wags were suggesting that the reason Huhne didn't resign when the allegations about getting his wife to take his speeding points came out was that it would have more than halved his pension as he hadn't been in the Cabinet long enough).
Not really worth scrabbling round the investment banks for work if you can get £70k a year at public expense for doing nothing at all. Strange irony is that Gordon Brown is less of a waste of public money getting a backbencher's salary while almost never attending Parliament than he would be were he to retire and draw his Parliamentary pension.
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Sept 21, 2011 13:23:51 GMT 1
I see that the deficit continues to increase as does public sector spending. But no problem, the condems have got it all in hand. Haven't they?
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merkin
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Post by merkin on Sept 21, 2011 14:35:00 GMT 1
Of course not.
They need to cut quicker.
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Oct 6, 2011 11:25:52 GMT 1
That's not what the IMF are saying.
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merkin
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Post by merkin on Oct 6, 2011 11:44:47 GMT 1
fuck the IMF as well
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Bernie
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Post by Bernie on Oct 6, 2011 12:09:24 GMT 1
Quite right. Debt is slavery, remember that. Cut deeper!
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ab
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Post by ab on Oct 6, 2011 15:03:24 GMT 1
The IMF say a lot of things. Brispie, are you referring to the thing about being able to increase UK debt by 50% over 5 years? Government approach is to get rid of the deficit over 4 years - this involves reducing the rate at which debt grows over that time so that at the end of the 4 year period, debt will have "only" increased by 40%. Maybe a stimulus might be needed, but let's have that while making the cuts that they have in hand. Even the nice Mr Miliband has said that he can't commit to reversing the cuts being made. Also, the lovely Mr Balls has said that if Labour win in 2015 his aim would be to cut further and start reducing the overall level of debt. Me on Miliband's speech last week (you'll get a hint of my response from the title) botzarelli.wordpress.com/2011/10/03/the-miliband-muddle/Me on comparing Cameron's speech with Miliband's (I'm not sure his was a whole lot better) botzarelli.wordpress.com/2011/10/06/doing-or-judging-a-comparison-between-conference-speeches/
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Oct 6, 2011 15:23:39 GMT 1
Milliband's speech was poor. I'm not comparing like for like. I'm not sure the Labour party have the right response, but at least they have a response that looks like it might do a slightly better job with the economy at the moment.
I'm not economist, but telling people to pay off debts and not spend, whilst very little spending goes on elsewhere will only lead to one huge fuck off recession.
Is capitalism approaching its end?
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merkin
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Post by merkin on Oct 6, 2011 15:34:58 GMT 1
Don't be afraid of recession.
Better to have lower growth with debt reduction than higher growth that is fuelled by borrowing and simply increases the debt.
Individauls and businesses need to be sensible in how they borrow and how they save. If they had, the banks wouldn't have gone tits up in the first place.
Better to go through this kind of pain now rather than later whe it will be even worse. Ask Greece.
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Post by Scissett Terrier! on Oct 6, 2011 15:41:45 GMT 1
but be scared of depression which is what the west is really in! Tough times head gents for everyone who wasn't a banker before it all fucked up!
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ab
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Post by ab on Oct 6, 2011 16:10:58 GMT 1
At a personal level it is good advice if you are over-indebted to pay off your debts. The credit card gaffe from Cameron (which did not appear in the final speech as given) was to forget that if everyone did this it would harm the economy.
Miliband actually also said the same thing in his speech, but then tailed off with "but if you lose your job and the money stops coming in, you can't pay off the bill". Which is true, but opaque in its import. Was he arguing that families ought not to economise and try to pay off their debts to try and keep the economy afloat? I doubt it.
It is just the problem of the household/national finance simile. There's no real downside at the individual level of paying off your debts other than that you don't get to get as much new nice stuff as you used to enjoy. It is true that if you anticipate redundancy and live in rented accommodation which would be within the rental value you could get in HB there's an incentive to spend away, have no substantial savings and as much debt as people will give you (maximise your benefits and declare bankruptcy to avoid the debts), but thankfully not many people realise how the benefits system is designed to require you to burn through any savings and assets before helping you.
At the national level, of course, there is the argument that the state can stimulate demand and economic growth by public spending. How much of an effect this has is open to debate. However, it is pretty cast-iron guaranteed and obvious that cutting future public sector pensions would have absolutely no downside at all in terms of short term economic growth. Even if much more drastic changes were being proposed which immediately sent public sector workers out to start trying to buy private pensions to top up reduced pension expectations this would be positive as it would put money into the pensions industry and the businesses pension funds invest in.
The biggest killer for growth would probably be if inflation got too high (arguably it is already there) - IIRC it is at 5.8% at the moment, double what the BoE is meant to be maintaining, and this has a much greater impact on prices than the rise in VAT. However, controlling inflation would mean raising interest rates, which would make personal and mortgage debt harder to deal with.
We're between a rock and a hard place.
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bromley
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Post by bromley on Oct 6, 2011 17:10:30 GMT 1
Hi All,
The economy is buggered. It will end in war. Best make sure we're not involved in this one. Arming at least one side would boost the economy. Globalisation has caused the problem so it is fitting that a global war solves it.
Awag is clearly middle-aged with all this pension talk. A huge amount can happen before I retire. No-one has mentioned the cost of health care. That could be astronomical and more of an issue than pensions. Difficult to look 30+ years into the future though. Better off getting pissed.
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ab
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Post by ab on Oct 6, 2011 17:43:10 GMT 1
Blimey, brimmers is back!
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Oct 7, 2011 9:45:54 GMT 1
Public sector pensions being cut would make a huge difference in the short term. I would end up paying about £100 a month more. On an already very tight budget this would see the reins pulled in to a stupid extent.
Personally, I can't pay off more debt than I already am. There are lots of people like me. I have had to negotiate reduced monthly payments in recent years as increased costs like food and gas and electric have reduced my monthly available cash for debt repayments. By the end of next year we should have a bit more breathing space as some of the bigger debts get paid off. That's if I've still got a job. I can't even think about what would happen if I was made redundant. My redundancy payment wouldn't even be large enough to pay off all the debts.
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bromley
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Post by bromley on Oct 7, 2011 10:58:54 GMT 1
Brispie is the Greek economy. No I've got that wrong, he is actually paying of debts and has some prospect of a bright future so he is the Irish economy.
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merkin
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Post by merkin on Oct 7, 2011 12:30:58 GMT 1
Shouldn't have got into so much debt then.
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ab
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Post by ab on Oct 7, 2011 12:52:13 GMT 1
We're all going to die. I can see the sky falling in.
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brispie
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Post by brispie on Oct 7, 2011 13:41:49 GMT 1
At the time the debt was sustainable. Then shit happened and it became less sustainable.
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