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Post by runner76 on Jan 6, 2009 12:41:00 GMT 1
IF Leeds United and Huddersfield Town are to launch a promotion challenge in the second half of the season, recent history shows the Yorkshire duo are likely to need a record points tally in the new Millennium.
League One has reached the halfway stage and such has been the consistency shown by the top sides that the promotion race is shaping up to be more keenly fought than ever.
Eleven points separate leaders Leicester City and Scunthorpe United in sixth but it is the frightening pace being set by all the leading clubs that is spelling possible danger for the White Rose's representatives in the third tier.
Both Leeds and Huddersfield, the latter have played a game more following Saturday's 1-1 draw with Oldham Athletic at the Galpharm Stadium, have 36 points. In a typical season, this would be enough to see them either in or just below the top six.
Unfortunately, 2008-09 has been anything but ordinary with the pair instead being five points adrift of Scunthorpe who, if they can replicate their form of the opening 23 games, are on course to finish with a hugely impressive 82 points.
Such a total would comfortably dwarf the 71 points that were enough to see sixth place claimed by Swansea City
(2005-06) and Hartlepool United (2004-05).
It would even beat the previous best of 81 points that ensured Cardiff City were able to have a tilt at the end-of-season promotion deciders in 2002-03 and be comfortably above the average of 75.25 that has been required to finish sixth in the past eight seasons.
When it comes to the battle for automatic promotion, it is a similar tale with second-placed MK Dons having claimed 49 points at the halfway stage – a total matched only once since 2000 when Hull City were breathing down the neck of eventual champions Luton Town four years ago.
The impressive form of Roberto Di Matteo's side is best illustrated by looking back to this time last year when Nottingham Forest were second with 38 points, a haul they improved on marginally in the second half of the campaign to bring their stay in League One to an end after three years.
Both Leicester and the Dons possess the resources to maintain – or even improve – on their first-half form, as do Peterborough United.
Scunthorpe may not be able to compete in fiscal terms, but Nigel Adkins's previous promotion success from League One should stand him and his players in good stead.
This cannot, however, be said about either Millwall or Oldham, the other two sides making up the top six, and both Leeds and Huddersfield will be hoping to apply the sort of pressure that has seen no less than six of the last eight sides occupying a play-off berth at the corresponding stage to miss out come the end of the campaign.
Time is, of course, of the essence for the Yorkshire duo but there are reasons for optimism that they can overcome recent history and fight their way into the play-offs.
Whether either forces their way into the top six remains to be seen, but the one certainty is both Town and Leeds can afford few slip-ups in what seems certain to be an intriguing second half of the season.
Good article, and just cements what we already know - we CAN get top 6 this season, but it will take something very, very special...........................
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Post by SN0W on Jan 6, 2009 12:50:32 GMT 1
Shame we blew so many points early on, but recent form shows that we are now as good as the top teams... we just need to sort out the front end to give us the edge (obviously we will be there because it's in the script).
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Post by richhtfc on Jan 6, 2009 12:50:38 GMT 1
Interesting that we feel to have had a poor first half to the season (barring the last couple of months), but in most years we'd be in the top 3 or 4.
We really need to knuckle down now, can't afford to be dropping points especially at home like we did saturday.
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Post by scottieterrier on Jan 6, 2009 13:09:23 GMT 1
We all know it is going to be difficult this season but you never know, if we don't get promoted this season I believe we can definatley be confident next season, we will be one of the favourites, but hopefully we won't have to wait that long.
Keep it going Town.
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Post by runner76 on Jan 6, 2009 13:11:43 GMT 1
It begs the question, where would we be if LC had been there from the start of the season.............
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Post by terryya on Jan 6, 2009 13:39:48 GMT 1
Makes you wonder though, can the top 6 teams keep performaing so much better then usual?
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Post by sapphireblue on Jan 6, 2009 13:44:46 GMT 1
Whoever wrote that article has either never heard of, or is choosing to ignore, reversion (or regression) to the mean. This would show that it is very likely that the top clubs will not all keep on like they have been (or even better in the cases of Leicester and Cub Thieves FC). At the end of the season we will probably see a pretty normal/usual points spread throughout the whole division. i.e champions with approx 2 points per game down to relegated teams with approx 1 point per game and a fairly even gap (approx 0.05 points per game) in between teams going down the division.
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Post by townatheart on Jan 6, 2009 13:47:35 GMT 1
Makes you wonder though, can the top 6 teams keep performaing so much better then usual? I would guess that at least two if not three will keep up the perfromance levels, but that there will be probably three that will fall off the pace, and that is where we will be competing if we maintain the form/promise we are now showing. But make no mistake, it will not be an easy task. At least we can be glad that we can now hold our heads up and feel that we have a genuine chance, and will be able to enjoy the ride.  |
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Post by panasonicgeese on Jan 6, 2009 13:51:09 GMT 1
Makes you wonder though, can the top 6 teams keep performaing so much better then usual? No I think some will drop out of the play-offs before the season finale. If the journalist is using historic examples then he has missed the ones where clubs have lit up the league up to Christmas and hit a wall in the New Year. Someone always makes a January/February charge into the play-offs and that form has taken them into the Championship. Personally, I don't give a toss what other clubs are doing as long as we keep picking up points. Someone's bottle will go at the business end of the season and if we are in the mix than our management teams experience will keep our lads relaxed! January to 2nd May is going to be very exciting for us! Town's season is now really just begining! |
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Post by runner76 on Jan 6, 2009 13:53:07 GMT 1
Fair point that not all the top 6 will keep the form going, but there will also surely be 1 / 2 teams beneath us who are capable of mounting a decent run?
One thing for sure is that of we keep the form of the last month or so's games going, we SHOULD be looking at a top 6 finish....................
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Post by panasonicgeese on Jan 6, 2009 13:55:28 GMT 1
Fair point that not all the top 6 will keep the form going, but there will also surely be 1 / 2 teams beneath us who are capable of mounting a decent run? A mini league is developing between the top 10 clubs as the table stands currently. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2009 13:55:48 GMT 1
Interesting indeed. i looked at the current league form which shows us 5th over the last six games.
Position Name P W D L F A GD PTS PTS / Game
1 Leicester City 6 5 1 0 14 4 10 16 2.67
2 MK Dons 6 5 0 1 14 6 8 15 2.50
3 Tranmere 6 4 1 1 9 6 3 13 2.17
4 Colchester 6 4 1 1 8 5 3 13 2.17
5 Huddersfield 6 4 1 1 8 5 3 13 2.17
6 Peterborough 6 3 2 1 14 12 2 11 1.83
Usually the eventual winners of this division finsh with a points per game average of around 2.10. If everone were to continue the form for the rest of the season the the table would finish like this.
Current Position, Final Position (Based on form), Name, Total Points
1 1 Leicester City 112
2 2 MK Dons 107
8 3 Tranmere 87
3 4 Millwall 86
4 5 Peterborough 85
10 6 Huddersfield 84
11 7 Colchester 81
6 8 Scunthorpe 72
7 9 Stockport 72
5 10 Oldham 71
12 11 Walsall 58
22 12 Cheltenham 55
14 13 Northampton 52
15 14 Hartlepool 52
9 15 Leeds United 51
18 16 Yeovil Town 47
13 17 Southend 45
16 18 Bristol Rovers 45
17 19 Carlisle 44
24 20 Crewe 43
21 21 Leyton Orient 41
19 22 Brighton 38
20 23 Swindon Town 38
23 24 Hereford 36
I'd take this right now especially with L**ds finishing in 15th.
I suppose you can make stats show whatever you want...
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Post by panasonicgeese on Jan 6, 2009 14:00:47 GMT 1
We still have 8 of the 9 clubs above us to play and a good collection of points from these will certainly put us in the mix.
I'm so excited at the moment as we will be there or there abouts come May. If we don't make it, than watch out League 1 next season. Lee Clark will have had a busy summer getting the players in that he wants.
As someone else has said on the board. The futures certainly bright, the futures blue and white!
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Post by runner76 on Jan 6, 2009 14:13:38 GMT 1
Aye, the good news is that we have games left against a lot of the teams above us - they will all be MASSIVE games where we will need to come away with something from most of them.....................
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Post by TomTheTerrier on Jan 6, 2009 14:35:05 GMT 1
Aye, the good news is that we have games left against a lot of the teams above us - they will all be MASSIVE games where we will need to come away with something from most of them..................... We have games left against everyone but Oldham, that's how the mid-point of the season works  |
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Post by runner76 on Jan 6, 2009 14:41:36 GMT 1
Aye, the good news is that we have games left against a lot of the teams above us - they will all be MASSIVE games where we will need to come away with something from most of them..................... We have games left against everyone but Oldham, that's how the mid-point of the season works So, I have Irish blood.............. ;D |
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