The "there's no value to be had in January" myth

[Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser)]

Ok, putting aside people stating (perhaps unfairly) that PH won't back Carlos in the January window, and putting aside COvid concerns etc, one of the common arguments about the January window is that there is no value to be had, no benefit of signing anyone etc.

It's easy to accept this as gospel, especially when most of the transfer news we see relaties to the elite leagues. It's probably true that, if you're a top 6 EPl club, you;re going to pay through the nose for quality mid-season.

But is it true for "the likes of us"?

Let's take a look at the last five seasons.

Last January:

We brought in two permanent signings - Richard Stearman on a free and Harry Toffolo - fee undisclosed but rumoured to be between £250k and £500k. Both players have to be seen as a success.

January 2019:

Again, we brought in two permanent signings - Jaden Brown (undisclosed compensation, likely to be very low) and Karlan Grant for around £1.5m. Both again have to be seen as a success - Jaden is a useful squad player and Karlan did a good job for us before we made a tidy profit in excess of £10m.

January 2018:

Just one permanent signing - Alex Pritchard - this was an expensive transfer and one we almost certainly regret. We paid around £11m for him, he's reportedly on a silly wage etc. An exensive lesson we appear to have learned from (based on the following two windows)

January 2017:

We brought in Collin Quaner, our only transfer, for around £450k. Has to be seen as a success, although he wasn't my cup of tea.

January 2016:

One permanent- Karim Matmour on a free on a short term deal - played 16 games in the second half of the season, and his goal in the 4-1 away win at Bellend Road was worth every penny of his wages.

Inevitably loans are much more of a mixed bag, but notable successes are Izzy Brown, Terence Kongolo (which became permanent) and last season Smith-Rowe, Willock and Lossl.

My point is, there is business to be done. We just need to be shrewd.

[Big Ern]

We need to bring in enforcement at RB and CM so Pipa and Eiting can have a rest once in A while. Another striker also wouldn't go amiss.

[Convictatthemac]

Dec 30, 2020 10:39:32 GMT 1 Big Ern said:

We need to bring in enforcement at RB and CM so Pipa and Eiting can have a rest once in A while. Another striker also wouldn't go amiss.

I think bringing in Aarons and Grant will free up Bacuna to play in the midfield again and possibly deputise for RB when Pipa needs a break. Striker is our most pressing issue with there being no back up for Campbell.

CB is a conundrum, our 3 aging CB’s are mostly out for the season with injury and out of contract, is it worth bringing in another CB? But REG is getting great development here, you also want to keep that going and not to stunt his growth. Maybe a loan from the end of January until the end of the season.

[Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser)]

Dec 30, 2020 11:00:22 GMT 1 Convictatthemac said:

Dec 30, 2020 10:39:32 GMT 1 Big Ern said:

We need to bring in enforcement at RB and CM so Pipa and Eiting can have a rest once in A while. Another striker also wouldn't go amiss.

I think bringing in Aarons and Grant will free up Bacuna to play in the midfield again and possibly deputise for RB when Pipa needs a break. Striker is our most pressing issue with there being no back up for Campbell.

CB is a conundrum, our 3 aging CB’s are mostly out for the season with injury and out of contract, is it worth bringing in another CB? But REG is getting great development here, you also want to keep that going and not to stunt his growth. Maybe a loan from the end of January until the end of the season.

I suspect our long term goal is to have REG and Crichlow as the future. I think Schindy will stay another year (my understanding is his kids are settled and he loves it here from a family POV) but would say we could do with one more option. Sarr is doing all the heavy lifting right now - if he gets crocked we may be screwed. We need to effectively write off Stearman and Elphick - if either make a real contribution again it's a bonus so if we can pick up another Stearman type deal in January, worth it.

[Porrohman]

Dec 30, 2020 12:04:33 GMT 1 Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser) said:

Dec 30, 2020 11:00:22 GMT 1 Convictatthemac said:

I think bringing in Aarons and Grant will free up Bacuna to play in the midfield again and possibly deputise for RB when Pipa needs a break. Striker is our most pressing issue with there being no back up for Campbell.

CB is a conundrum, our 3 aging CB’s are mostly out for the season with injury and out of contract, is it worth bringing in another CB? But REG is getting great development here, you also want to keep that going and not to stunt his growth. Maybe a loan from the end of January until the end of the season.

I suspect our long term goal is to have REG and Crichlow as the future. I think Schindy will stay another year (my understanding is his kids are settled and he loves it here from a family POV) but would say we could do with one more option. Sarr is doing all the heavy lifting right now - if he gets crocked we may be screwed. We need to effectively write off Stearman and Elphick - if either make a real contribution again it's a bonus so if we can pick up another Stearman type deal in January, worth it.

My only worry there is both REG and RC are on the short side for CB's

[Convictatthemac]

Dec 30, 2020 12:04:33 GMT 1 Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser) said:

Dec 30, 2020 11:00:22 GMT 1 Convictatthemac said:

I think bringing in Aarons and Grant will free up Bacuna to play in the midfield again and possibly deputise for RB when Pipa needs a break. Striker is our most pressing issue with there being no back up for Campbell.

CB is a conundrum, our 3 aging CB’s are mostly out for the season with injury and out of contract, is it worth bringing in another CB? But REG is getting great development here, you also want to keep that going and not to stunt his growth. Maybe a loan from the end of January until the end of the season.

I suspect our long term goal is to have REG and Crichlow as the future. I think Schindy will stay another year (my understanding is his kids are settled and he loves it here from a family POV) but would say we could do with one more option. Sarr is doing all the heavy lifting right now - if he gets crocked we may be screwed. We need to effectively write off Stearman and Elphick - if either make a real contribution again it's a bonus so if we can pick up another Stearman type deal in January, worth it.

If Schindy is staying then I’d hope it’s more as guidance and backup to REG as I think we are on a good thing here. Schindy has a great mind, I just think his body is not following anymore and REG could pick his brain.

[HuddsTerrier]

January also is the time when clubs with financial concerns “need” to get money in

I remember us having Bradford over a barrel for Nakhi Wells and getting him for a lot less than Bradford were hoping

With covid - and based on stuff Towns hierarchy have said in the press - there will be numerous clubs desperate to sell to offset the loss in match day income. Could be some decent deals to be had

[Camel Grabber]

Wonder how long Wigan can hold on to Kyle Joseph, his goals last night looked very instinctive in the box.

With their troubles I'm sure someone will get him for a bargain price

[Lovechops]

Dec 30, 2020 14:34:30 GMT 1 Porrohman said:

Dec 30, 2020 12:04:33 GMT 1 Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser) said:

I suspect our long term goal is to have REG and Crichlow as the future. I think Schindy will stay another year (my understanding is his kids are settled and he loves it here from a family POV) but would say we could do with one more option. Sarr is doing all the heavy lifting right now - if he gets crocked we may be screwed. We need to effectively write off Stearman and Elphick - if either make a real contribution again it's a bonus so if we can pick up another Stearman type deal in January, worth it.

My only worry there is both REG and RC are on the short side for CB's

Both may be only round the 6 foot mark but can’t half jump high from a standing position which is better than someone tall who can’t leave the floor!

[Deleted]

Plenty of decent centre backs under 6 feet. Cannavaro, Puyol, Baresi, Koeman, Beckanbauer, De Boer, Cordoa, Moore, Blind, Mascherano

[crux]

Dec 30, 2020 19:37:02 GMT 1 Lovechops said:

Dec 30, 2020 14:34:30 GMT 1 Porrohman said:

My only worry there is both REG and RC are on the short side for CB's

Both may be only round the 6 foot mark but can’t half jump high from a standing position which is better than someone tall who can’t leave the floor!

I'm sure Jon Stead was 'shorter' when he jumped for headers! He was awful in the air for such a tall bloke.

[Headless Chicken]

Dec 30, 2020 10:39:32 GMT 1 Big Ern said:

We need to bring in enforcement at RB and CM so Pipa and Eiting can have a rest once in A while. Another striker also wouldn't go amiss.

Not so easy to get someone in who is only likely to be a bit part player, especially in the case of RB where Pipa has consistently been a top performer.

[CaptainHart]

The problem with this analysis, as with most economics, is you don't know what would have happened it you'd taken a different course of action. We can say ESR was worth his reported fee because we stayed up but we can't say what would have happened if we hadn't brought him in.

Another issue is how you judge value. I'm not Pritchard's biggest fan but in May 2018 it was reasonable to argue that he was worth what we paid.

[Gag_N_Bone_Man (Destabiliser)]

Dec 31, 2020 11:55:42 GMT 1 CaptainHart said:

The problem with this analysis, as with most economics, is you don't know what would have happened it you'd taken a different course of action. We can say ESR was worth his reported fee because we stayed up but we can't say what would have happened if we hadn't brought him in.

Another issue is how you judge value. I'm not Pritchard's biggest fan but in May 2018 it was reasonable to argue that he was worth what we paid.

I think we paid the going rate for him. He was effectively worth it on the day but has he delivered a decent return on the investment? Not even close. I'd argue that he is the most disappointing purchase of the last 5 years, in terms of ROI, the obvious potential and the number of opportunities he's been given to come good. And that's saying something when he's often on the bench sat next to Diakhaby. The problem is, somewhere there is a decent, proven player there (and you can't say the same for Adama)