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Post by hypotenuse on Aug 22, 2021 17:19:27 GMT 1
I’ve just been using one of my favourite sites - infogol and expected goals.
I know it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea so apologies in advance.
It seems that our style of play (if we have a style?) is not at all suited to playing at home. Our expected goals in the two home games in total is 0.73 so we’ve done pretty well to score 2 (though one was an og)
Away from home our xG is 3.09 (we’ve score 3) which is over 4 times higher than the home games.
We seem well suited to the ‘sit back and defend then catch the oppo with a sucker punch’ approach than when we are expected to ‘make the running’ at home.
Our lack of a quality midfield ball player will undoubtedly be a factor - maybe crowd expectation is another?
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Post by allan 1958 (OAF-WROY)(SSLFF) on Aug 22, 2021 17:24:54 GMT 1
I’ve just been using one of my favourite sites - infogol and expected goals. I know it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea so apologies in advance. It seems that our style of play (if we have a style?) is not at all suited to playing at home. Our expected goals in the two home games in total is 0.73 so we’ve done pretty well to score 2 (though one was an og) Away from home our xG is 3.09 (we’ve score 3) which is over 4 times higher than the home games. We seem well suited to the ‘sit back and defend then catch the oppo with a sucker punch’ approach than when we are expected to ‘make the running’ at home. Our lack of a quality midfield ball player will undoubtedly be a factor - maybe crowd expectation is another? I think we have had a disjointed start to the season The covid players missing A young struggling keeper forced into front line The rumours over lob The extended contracts for bacca and mbenza Covids impact on cash flow I think when we get the first 11 out on a regular basis we will be a tough team to beat and more entertaining Utt |
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chinaski
Frank Worthington Terrier
[M0:0]
Posts: 1,919
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Post by chinaski on Aug 22, 2021 17:29:54 GMT 1
Pretty small sample mate!
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Post by andyeastleake on Aug 22, 2021 17:34:02 GMT 1
I’ve just been using one of my favourite sites - infogol and expected goals. I know it isn’t everyone’s cup of tea so apologies in advance. On your general point, I think a sample size of 4 games is much too small to be reaching too many conclusions about Home Vs Away performance. Thank you for introducing me to Infogol after the Derby game. It's an interesting site. In my eyes, XG can be much more informative on occasions than the "basic" tool of shots and shots on target (& yesterday was a good example of that). However some of the %s baffle me. Did Levi Colwill really only have a 65% probability of scoring? |
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Post by hypotenuse on Aug 22, 2021 18:37:22 GMT 1
Agree it is a small sample but you can go back through the whole of 2021 and look at our woeful home form (2 wins in 14 home league games this year) and very low xG in almost every game (10.46 expected goals in 14 games and only 2 of which had an xG above 1 - neither of which we scored in) suggests a major problem with creating opportunities at home over a lengthy period. This compares with 16.07 xG in the same period away from home and more away points.
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Post by insooth on Aug 22, 2021 19:41:39 GMT 1
hypotenuse ---- You have the right angle.
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Post by griffa on Aug 22, 2021 21:15:19 GMT 1
hypotenuse ---- You have the right angle. You may jest, but the angle of the dangle is critical - UTT. |
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Tinpot
Mental Health Support Group
I'm really tinpot
Posts: 22,404 
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Post by Tinpot on Aug 24, 2021 11:51:15 GMT 1
I think the biggest difference was when Donald "Flathead" Fisher's character developed from fearsome and ill tempered headmaster to "firm but fair" type that provided a steady home life for the numerous troubled teens that went through Summer Bay.
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Post by Toxic Ted on Aug 24, 2021 14:16:54 GMT 1
I think the biggest difference was when Donald "Flathead" Fisher's character developed from fearsome and ill tempered headmaster to "firm but fair" type that provided a steady home life for the numerous troubled teens that went through Summer Bay. Marvellous. |
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Post by Leporid on Aug 24, 2021 15:20:18 GMT 1
hypotenuse ---- You have the right angle. You may jest, but the angle of the dangle is critical - UTT. Indeed it is. It's a key element of Pyshagoras's theorem. |
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Post by Leporid on Aug 24, 2021 15:23:43 GMT 1
You may jest, but the angle of the dangle is critical - UTT. Indeed it is. It's a key element of Pyshagoras's theorem. Which can be explained thus:- BM + TK = AD The beat of the meat + the throb of the knob = the angle of the dangle. |
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Post by andyeastleake on Oct 17, 2021 13:47:59 GMT 1
Looking again at these statistics, despite the poor first two home games the cumulative position on expected goals is now
Home 7.79 Away 6.61
Our record is 6-2-4 and our "expected" position is W7 L5 (we had higher XG in the draw at Derby, Luton had in the draw there).
In only two non-drawn games the XG "result" didn't match the result and both featured an own goal which skews the statistic (Preston home and Stoke away).
I think this supports the view (not shared by some on DATM) we've broadly got the results we deserve so far.
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Post by Wings of a Duff on Oct 17, 2021 14:20:41 GMT 1
The emergence of the xG statistic (and the plethora of so-called experts on the interwebs that never shut up about it) is one of the things I hate about modern football. To me it's an art, not a science.
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