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Post by themanfromatlantis on Apr 21, 2024 10:56:35 GMT 1
So what do we all think now the dust has settled on the shite day yesterday?
Still not mathematically impossible of course, but the permutations have narrowed massively from 3PM yesterday, as they often do at this stage.
Definitely 2 from 3 for me, Plymouth are just about safe, QPR did their bit in their big game yesterday. I’m expecting Blackburn to pull out all the stops today and give themselves breathing space.
Which one of the clubs with the American owners will be plying their trade in L1?
I know we’re all down today, but don’t forget that Brum only matched our result at an already relegated Rotherham.
At least Brum made it into the top half this season… (I don’t believe we have?)
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jonbrno
Tom Cowan Terrier
[M0:0]
Posts: 637
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Post by jonbrno on Apr 21, 2024 11:04:13 GMT 1
Our relegation odds have gone from 1/2 Friday to 1/7 today.
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Post by teddytheterrier on Apr 21, 2024 11:06:55 GMT 1
Win both games and I think we have to hope results go our way. Let’s face it we are done. We won’t beat brum next week.
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Post by themanfromatlantis on Apr 21, 2024 11:07:06 GMT 1
Our relegation odds have gone from 1/2 Friday to 1/7 today. I’m sure they have. Even if results go our way today and next week, we’ll still be odds on with an away fixture at Ipswich. I don’t bet, but I’d imagine bookies give nothing away at this stage of the season. Are Brum and Wed odds against? I doubt it. |
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Post by royrace on Apr 21, 2024 11:08:01 GMT 1
So what do we all think now the dust has settled on the shite day yesterday? Still not mathematically impossible of course, but the permutations have narrowed massively from 3PM yesterday, as they often do at this stage. Definitely 2 from 3 for me, Plymouth are just about safe, QPR did their bit in their big game yesterday. I’m expecting Blackburn to pull out all the stops today and give themselves breathing space. Which one of the clubs with the American owners will be plying their trade in L1? I know we’re all down today, but don’t forget that Brum only matched our result at an already relegated Rotherham. At least Brum made it into the top half this season… (I don’t believe we have?) I think if Wednesday lose today we can keep clutching those straws. Their GD is now only four away from ours though. If we end up level I guess it's based on head to head in which case we'd stay up I think?! More likely they'll overtake us with points, starting today. Seems all the other clubs have managed to pull themselves together. If they don't and we beat Brum it goes to the last game I think which we could still lose and stay up? |
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Post by boooothy on Apr 21, 2024 11:09:24 GMT 1
We really do need to pick ourselves up for next week. Birmingham are just as bad as us. Beat them and chances are we go into the last game of the season outside the relegation zone. Unbelievable really..
Then who knows what Ipswich will have to play for. Still pissed from celebrating promotion midweek? Resting players for the Play Offs?
One last push!!!
Wednesday losing today would help.
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Post by stevvy on Apr 21, 2024 11:11:37 GMT 1
Pretty sure it goes points, goal difference, goals scored, then head to head
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Post by belizian on Apr 21, 2024 11:13:47 GMT 1
I suspect Wednesday are going to get their needed points and we may well help them stay up by beating or drawing with Brum.
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Post by sabailand on Apr 21, 2024 11:17:38 GMT 1
Its still on but for us to win two on the bounce is asking a lot, we've skated on the thinnest of thin ice for ages and its about to crack.
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Post by themanfromatlantis on Apr 21, 2024 11:20:19 GMT 1
Its still on but for us to win two on the bounce is asking a lot, we've skated on the thinnest of thin ice for ages and its about to crack. Absolutely, I started this mainly to see if we could keep all the theory stuff in one place. I should have described our odds as being of Lazarus proportions… 😂 |
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cyberman
Jimmy Nicholson Terrier
Posts: 1,505
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Post by cyberman on Apr 21, 2024 11:26:02 GMT 1
Win both games and I think we have to hope results go our way. Let’s face it we are done. We won’t beat brum next week. and we will get dicked by Ipswich |
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Post by teddytheterrier on Apr 21, 2024 11:28:46 GMT 1
Win both games and I think we have to hope results go our way. Let’s face it we are done. We won’t beat brum next week. and we will get dicked by Ipswich I’ve seen another poster post somewhere we will lose to brum and then beat Ipswich on last day to send Leeds up. Could see that one happening too it would absolutely sum us up. A truly awful season that just needs to end. |
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Post by TJTown on Apr 21, 2024 11:40:58 GMT 1
Sat here convincing myself to go again next weekend. Despite my better judgement it's in the blood isn't it. Feel like as long as there's still a slight chance, however unlikely, we should fight to the end.
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jonbrno
Tom Cowan Terrier
[M0:0]
Posts: 637
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Post by jonbrno on Apr 21, 2024 11:47:11 GMT 1
Our relegation odds have gone from 1/2 Friday to 1/7 today. I’m sure they have. Even if results go our way today and next week, we’ll still be odds on with an away fixture at Ipswich. I don’t bet, but I’d imagine bookies give nothing away at this stage of the season. Are Brum and Wed odds against? I doubt it. Town 1/7 Sheff Wed 2/5 Birmingham 5/4 Clear favourites to go down now, was much of a muchness between all three until yesterday. |
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Post by Million Dollar Babies on Apr 21, 2024 11:47:28 GMT 1
I'd take some pleasure out of dragging Birmingham down with us. Don't like Wednesday but would rather they stay up than Birmingham
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Post by royrace on Apr 21, 2024 11:50:49 GMT 1
I’m sure they have. Even if results go our way today and next week, we’ll still be odds on with an away fixture at Ipswich. I don’t bet, but I’d imagine bookies give nothing away at this stage of the season. Are Brum and Wed odds against? I doubt it. Town 1/7 Sheff Wed 2/5 Birmingham 5/4 Clear favourites to go down now, was much of a muchness between all three until yesterday. Based on the fact we shipped four at home I guess so maybe skewed slightly. Silly thing is if Wednesday lose today it's all to play for again next week! |
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rocky
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by rocky on Apr 21, 2024 11:52:22 GMT 1
So what do we all think now the dust has settled on the shite day yesterday? Still not mathematically impossible of course, but the permutations have narrowed massively from 3PM yesterday, as they often do at this stage. Definitely 2 from 3 for me, Plymouth are just about safe, QPR did their bit in their big game yesterday. I’m expecting Blackburn to pull out all the stops today and give themselves breathing space. Which one of the clubs with the American owners will be plying their trade in L1? I know we’re all down today, but don’t forget that Brum only matched our result at an already relegated Rotherham. At least Brum made it into the top half this season… (I don’t believe we have?) Just accept it mate. I left at Preston thinking it was all over and if anything, it's got much worse since then. They say that hope kills you, by looking for yet another miracle it's like killing yourself with 1,000 cuts. |
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Dan
Andy Booth Terrier
Posts: 3,868
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Post by Dan on Apr 21, 2024 11:52:48 GMT 1
Beat Birmingham and lose to Ipswich:
Hope that Sheff Weds get no more than 3 points from their 3 games. Hope Norwich beat Birmingham on the last day.
Beat Birmingham and draw to Ipswich:
Hope that Sheff Weds get no more than 4 points from their 3 games. Hope Norwich draw or beat Birmingham on the last day.
Beat Birmingham and beat Ipswich:
Hope Sheff Weds get no more than 6 points from their 3 games. If Wednesday lose today and we win our last 2 we'd almost certainly be safe.
Obviously we're on the absolute brink and hoping on all sorts at the moment. A Blackburn win today gives a bit of a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. A Wednesday win would almost finish us off.
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Post by garyroberts'leftfoot on Apr 21, 2024 11:54:26 GMT 1
1/7 is generous. We will lose at Ipswich, that’s guaranteed. Even if we beat Birmingham it won’t be enough.
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Post by boooothy on Apr 21, 2024 12:11:52 GMT 1
Town 1/7 Sheff Wed 2/5 Birmingham 5/4 Clear favourites to go down now, was much of a muchness between all three until yesterday. Based on the fact we shipped four at home I guess so maybe skewed slightly. Silly thing is if Wednesday lose today it's all to play for again next week! Us and Wednesday would probably have the same odds if they lose. Then a win on Saturday takes us out of the bottom 3. |
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cyberman
Jimmy Nicholson Terrier
Posts: 1,505
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Post by cyberman on Apr 21, 2024 14:08:08 GMT 1
Wndies winning 3-1 .....us and Brum then
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Post by willo on Apr 21, 2024 14:19:35 GMT 1
We’ll likely lose in the same half-arsed manner we lost yesterday. There’s no hope left now, none whatsoever.
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Post by alexdire on Apr 21, 2024 14:27:51 GMT 1
The only permutations are how many Birmingham and Ipswich put past us.
I'll go first.
3 and 6
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Post by themanfromatlantis on Apr 21, 2024 14:29:16 GMT 1
My OP aged well.
Permutations as tight as 2 coats of paint now.
Gonna be a shite week on here…
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Post by The Sheriff Strikes Back on Apr 21, 2024 14:30:13 GMT 1
Game over.
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Post by Farsley Terrier (UK product) on Apr 21, 2024 14:31:46 GMT 1
We're down. Accept it
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Post by kennyk2 on Apr 21, 2024 14:37:07 GMT 1
The only permutations are how many Birmingham and Ipswich put past us. I'll go first. 3 and 6 As the board optimist I think you are being a little conservative there. These players' heads are gone. The final two games will end with two awful defeats and Birmingham/Ipswich will be able to score as many as they want. |
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Post by conman on Apr 21, 2024 14:47:27 GMT 1
Has anyone worked out how many permutations there actually are ?
Or do we have to wait till after the Brum game , if we're still in it of course.
That year Birmingham sent us down , wasn't that 1 in 33 chance of going down ?
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Post by teddytheterrier on Apr 21, 2024 14:52:25 GMT 1
After today’s result the permutations are simple! We’re fucked!
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Post by melbourneterrier on Apr 21, 2024 14:57:17 GMT 1
Yep, have to accept barring an extremely unlikely mircale, we are down.
Mathematically, we aren't down yet, but realistically it's been coming for some time now.
We obviously didn't do ourselves any favours, but with Wednesday winning they go above us. Stoke, Millwall and QPR winning takes them all out of it.
AS you said, it's now between Blackburn, Plymouth, Wednesday, Birmingham and us. Plymouth and Blackburn are 4 and 5 points ahead of us, which mean's we'd have to win both to overtake them and for them both to lose their remaining games (with GD, a win and a draw for us would still place us behind them).
So then we look at Wednesday and Birmingham. Our best hope is we beat Birmingham, and West Brom beat Wednesday. If that happens then we leapfrog both of them.
Then on the final day, away at Ipswich, we'd have to match or better what they do. Brum host Norwich and Sunderland host Wednesday.
TLDR, Let's hope we can remember how to finish against Brum, and hope Brum and Wednesday are shit.
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