Oh Davy Wavy

[brispie]

What have you done to us now?

[turtle]

I preferred his Smiths songs.

[ab]

There might well be a case for taxing the financial sector. There certainly is a case for regulating it further to prevent future crashes.

I'm not sure that there is a case for taxing it to send money not to the Exchequer to spend on stuff like UK public services or regenerating the economy but to the EU to spend on bailing out other EU countries' governments and banking systems. I'm not sure that there is a case for regulating it so as to make it less competitive with the financial sectors in othe EU countries.

As far as I can tell Cameron asked for very little (not even a veto or opt-out for the financial sector generally) and certainly far less than eurosceptics wanted - no repatriation of powers or anything like that. But Merkozy still said no.

[merkin]

Merkozy is a great name

[Bernie]

I think he may actually have done the right thing. Or perhaps the least worst thing. We'll see soon. Anyway, I don't give a fuck, the swedish krona is still relatively firm and turgid. (Though it slipped a bit against the pound yesterday, possibly a result of the markets approving of shiny dave's refusal to sign away more of our sovereignty to a bunch of donkey-kicking, ouzo-swilling lazy dagoes)

[brispie]

From what I can ascertain, they weren't even discussing the financial tax. It's just that Davy Wavy wanted to get his veto in case they did so he could be the sweetheart of the right.

Only time will tell, but my gut feeling is that it won't turn out well.

[merkin]

Nostradamus must be shitting his pants!

[Bernie]

Dec 14, 2011 12:06:28 GMT 1 brispie said:

From what I can ascertain, they weren't even discussing the financial tax. It's just that Davy Wavy wanted to get his veto in case they did so he could be the sweetheart of the right.

Only time will tell, but my gut feeling is that it won't turn out well.

Sweetheart of the right? I think quite a lot of people on the left are also in opposition to unelected and unaccountable EU kommisars telling us what we can and can't do with our own fucking money. Let's see how far your socialist solidarity goes when you can't afford to your heating bill because some lazy bastard in Athens needs the money to keep up his BMW repayments.

Besides, I thought you were anti-cuts? Who the fucking tits do you think is enforcing massive austerity on Greece? At least if Cameron gets too keen with the knife we can vote the bastard out, a choice we wouldn't have with the Franco-Prussians.

[brispie]

Gets too keen with the knife? Fuck me. How much more keen does he have to get?

This whole squabble wasn't about the EU commisars telling us anything. It just means that we now can't tell those in the Euro what they can do.

I can't afford my heating bill now. Have had to negotiate lower payments. I am officially in fuel poverty.

[Bernie]

Gets too keen with the knife? Fuck me. How much more keen does he have to get?

I suspect the average Greek could tell you. If enough people feel like you, Cameron can be voted out. The Greeks don't really have that democratic luxury right now, though.

This whole squabble wasn't about the EU commisars telling us anything. It just means that we now can't tell those in the Euro what they can do.

I'm not sure I agree there.The commisars didn't appear to be in much of a mood to compromise even a tiny bit. As we are (I understand) still a net contributor to the EU, we will have input. Otherwise we can tell them to piss up a rope and save 50 million quid a day. Which might come in handy.

I can't afford my heating bill now. Have had to negotiate lower payments. I am officially in fuel poverty.

That sucks arse and you have my genuine sympathy. Slinging more money around to bail out European banks is unlikely to improve your lot though, is it?

[merkin]

£100 billion plus a year more keen

[GroveR]

Merkel has had it in for Disco Dave since he fucked her off over EPP back in 2007. And in comparison to Howard, IDS and Hague before him, Dave's actually fairly pro-euro.

Fuck her, the box-headed auld hun witch.

[brispie]

I suspect the average Greek could tell you. If enough people feel like you, Cameron can be voted out. The Greeks don't really have that democratic luxury right now, though.

But we aren't the Greeks and it's still biting like fuck, whilst the fawned over banks enjoy their bonuses.

I'm not sure I agree there.The commisars didn't appear to be in much of a mood to compromise even a tiny bit. As we are (I understand) still a net contributor to the EU, we will have input. Otherwise we can tell them to piss up a rope and save 50 million quid a day. Which might come in handy.

Neither did we. Davy Wavy was looking for a compromise on something that wasn't being discussed and when he didn't get it walked away. And of course we are a net provider. We are one one of the larger economies in the EU so can use that money to bring the newer nations up to speed and create a larger market, which we may now not have as much influence over.

I can't afford my heating bill now. Have had to negotiate lower payments. I am officially in fuel poverty.

That sucks arse and you have my genuine sympathy. Slinging more money around to bail out European banks is unlikely to improve your lot though, is it?
[/quote]

This treaty wasn't and isn't about that though, but the Euro sceptic right wingers seem to have blindly forgotten that. Except for Nigel Farage.

[Bernie]

And of course we are a net provider. We are one one of the larger economies in the EU so can use that money to bring the newer nations up to speed and create a larger market, which we may now not have as much influence over

That is basically what has got the eurozone into the mess it is today, isn't it? Instead of the newer nations (like Greece) coming up to speed, they saw a line of endless credit from the bigger boys and acted, well, like any human being would if you waved a load of cash under their nose and told them not to worry too much about paying it back.

[merkin]

only thick and stupid human beings

[brispie]

I'm actually enjoying Merk on this thread. I have no idea what he's on about, but have the feeling that he may be drunk.

Bernie - That isn't an argument against the system, it's an argument to say that the way that the system is managed isn't correct.

[merkin]

I'm enjoying you too brispo.

Yet more remarkable revelations...the system isn't managed properly!!!!!

When will this startling insight end!

[brispie]

Of course it's not startling, but it's no excuse to throw the system out.

[Bernie]

Dec 14, 2011 16:41:11 GMT 1 brispie said:

Bernie - That isn't an argument against the system, it's an argument to say that the way that the system is managed isn't correct.

How do you expect e.g. the Greeks to "come up to speed" with e.g the Germans? How will farming olives and running B&Bs magically become as lucrative as churning out BMWs and high-end electronic goods? In other words, how do you tweak a system of letting people/governments borrow way over what they can ever expect to pay back so people/governments don't borrow way over what they can ever expect to pay back?

[ab]

Interestingly, at long last quite a lot of left wing commentators are starting to think about what the proposed new Treaty meant. Basically it would enshrine austerity as a legal requirement for all eurozone countries with a maximum deficit of 3%. That would mean, were the UK to be a member that we'd be legally obliged by the new Treaty to cut our deficit immediately from 8% to below 3%. It would be impossible to even think about stimulus packages and growth. It would be time just to impose a 20% across the board pay cut for every public sector worker and whack up VAT to 25%.

That's why the socialist challenger to Sarkozy in the French presidential elections has said that he'd want immediate renegotiation of the proposed Treaty. Somehow he's not being portrayed as a swivel-eyed xenophobic right wing loon.

Can't be bothered to post up the links but even the nutjobs on the Grauniad have come on board with the prospect that the new Treaty would kill off social democratic policies in the EU (cf Douglas Hurd's comment in the 80s that he was pro-EU because it outlawed socialist economics - most leftish people have been rather blinded by the workers's rights and environment stuff to the fact that the basic elements of EU law are about hard neo liberal economics like stamping out subsidies and protectionism).

So, even if you think Dave's a right wing moron he may well have achieved the right result in at least allowing for the possibility that one day you'll get a more leftist government in who'll be able to do stuff you like. Rather than (as with Greece and Italy) finding that if they stuff it up you'll get someone chosen by Brussels to impose austerity beyond imagining in order to boost the German economy.

[brispie]

I didn't say the treaty was the solution. Having the ability to talk about it was and is though. And that is my main issue with Wavy Davy. I'm no huge fan of the EU. However, whilst it exists and we are in it lets take the opportunity to influence it as much as we can.

Davy Wavy didn't take that view and walked away from negotiations 'in the interests of the country' and suddenly becomes the darling of the right. That's poor leadership in my eyes.

Bernie - It's not about getting Greece to manufacture big things, if it was down to that we'd be booted out, it's about building an internal market so Germany can sell all their manufactured things easily. The EU was and is a replacement for the old Empires, but done by consensus.

[merkin]

he's done the right thing you buffoon

he's told them to fuck off and already Merkel knows that she will have to engage us.

they are already asking for more money this morning ffs.

if that's not still having a part to play then I don't know what is.

[Bernie]

To paraphrase AB_ (who basically just regurgitated what I said more succinctly earlier, the big fat cheat)

Is it some sort of cognitive dissonance that come from working in the public sector too long that means you can still disagree with Cameron's action when he rejects a treaty that would inevitably have resulted in more cuts than the cuts you are currently complaining about AND resulted in you not being able to vote out the bastard making the cuts, just because he's a fucking tory with a shiny boat?

As to the manufacturing of big things, first off you do British engineering a disservice there (aircraft engines and wings and so on are pretty big things) but secondly you misunderstand me, I was talking about generating proportionally comparable value which is what you need in order to 1) have a common currency, taxation etc and 2) to be able to afford the BMWs and high-end electronics churned out by our squareheaded friends. There's a reason the East Germans used to manufacture and drive Trabants, you know.

[ab]

If the EU is dead set on marching off in a completely different direction to what we think is right and in our interests whether we can get them to veer a little bit one way or the other while doing so is not particularly important. By saying no, we have the influence of making them have to work out whether they still can carry on marching off that way or maybe that they might not want to do so after all.

The leaders of the other 26 might be saying yes at the moment but I'd be surprised if they'll all pass the referendums to agree the proposed direction of travel in the countries that need them. Ireland definitely needs to have a referendum on the new Treaty - as they rejected the EU Constitution first time round prior to the economic crisis it isn't nailed on that they would happily say yes to a new Treaty that would force them into even stiffer austerity than they currently have (I've seen a suggestion that the UK could cheekily offer them a return to linking the punt to the pound to provide them with support to leave the euro instead). The French might also reject the new Treaty if put in a referendum (they've done that in the past too - the horrid eurosceptics they are). The Germans themselves have serious constitutional issues about the extent to which they might be asked to bail out the euro.

So, we might not be at the negotiating table for a deal that no-one looks particularly keen on (the best that either Clegg or Miliband can say in criticism is that they'd have negotiated more but without really saying what they would have been happy with - largely because they both know that ultimately there probably wasn't going to be a deal available) but staying out might well have an influence domestically in other EU countries.

If Sarkozy thinks that he'll lose the presidential election due to the new Treaty or Merkel thinks that her coalition partners will walk out because of it, there's influence for you.

[fgrfc_dan]

I'd be pro-EU if it were possible to construct a full, federal "united states" of Europe, but given the problems the yanks faced (and still faced) with the balance between state and federal power, plus the vastly deeper divisions between European states, that has to be an impossible dream. It's the only way of making European union work, though.

The current half-baked situation is almost certainly doomed to failure, and right now we seem to be exposing ourselves to that failure whilst gaining very little in the way of benefits from it.

As mentioned above, a lot of the problem is down to the left's habit of propagating the "left = good, right = evil" view and lumping Eurosceptics in with fascists, economic liberals and anti-environmentalists, when in fact the issues are totally separate.

I do think Cameron, and by extension the UK, has come out of this looking like a bit of a berk, though.

[ab]

It would be possible to create a full federal EU. The difference compared to the US is that people in the US identify themselves as Americans and have done since independence. They've fought a civil war to define what that meant. The non-founder states have had to buy into that idea on joining and wars have been fought over it.

With the distinct languages and cultures of Europe and the fact that however desirable a USE might be none of its peoples have ever been asked if they wanted to be part of it, we're a long long way off. It is hard enough trying to persuade lots of Scots they should be part of the UK after hundreds of years or that they have proper representation in the UK parliament.

The USE would have a pretty decent football team though. Even if it didn't have any former Brits in.

[merkin]

Why stop at the Scots....bring it to street level.

It annoys me that I have to get up at 6am to get into work when some fucker in No. 65 gets benefits galore thrown at it him and No 101 will own a company funded by a bank, fleece it over the years, leave his suppliers in the lurch....move on to start again under another name etc etc

Same argument we've had on here for years on a far grander scale.

Why should I, you or Dave be funding or be dictacted to by some other inept cards.

[Wizaard]

How can not being in negotiations be in a postion of strength when th e other 26 are?

Obviously, they'll be talking about us while we're out of the room.

I think the issue with the Greek situation is that there is an endemic culture of not paying The Man.

Wasn't it Corinth who as a city, paid 18,000 Euros in tax last year? No wonder they're in the do-do.

[ab]

Reports coming through just now that Hungary and Czech Republic have said they won't sign the Treaty unless the tax harmonisation provisions are removed.

Would small countries like that really have been able to ask for much unless their threat to walk away was taken seriously? It wouldn't have been taken seriously if they'd been the first out - I doubt that Merkozy would have batted an eyelid at the prospect of an EU without either or both of them and they'd have expected to be able to bring them back on board without giving in. With a large member like the UK saying stuff it, there's a lot more effect and influence on the behaviour of the the 26 still at the table because the presumption that the treaty will go through and bind everyone has gone.

That said, it would be great for the UK if there were to be a EU26 Treaty imposing austerity, tax harmonisation and a financial transactions tax on its signatories. Goodbye tax haven status for Luxembourg and Ireland (welcome back to the countless companies that rebased themselves there from the UK - just need to make sure that they don't prefer Switzerland). Welcome to the exodus of corporate banking from Paris and Frankfurt. Welcome also to being able to do little bits of financial stimulus that will give us a comparative boost to unstimulated economies even.

[Bernie]

Dec 15, 2011 14:10:09 GMT 1 fgrfc_dan said:

I do think Cameron, and by extension the UK, has come out of this looking like a bit of a berk, though.

Cameron will always look like a berk. However, one of the perks of being in Europe is taht the French will always look even bigger berks, sooner or later. e.g
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/french-banker-hints-at-uk-downgrade-6277421.html

(mind you, their berkishness tends to have a great deal more style than we can ever manage.)