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Post by dugnet on Apr 9, 2015 9:32:50 GMT 1
I know there's a few on here like the horses so I wondered if anyone had a view o today's Day 1 at Aintree and the GN?
On the Fringe must go close in the Foxhunter, Arctic Fire to beat Jezki? Silvianaco to bounce back? Next Sensation to follow up?
I thought Master Malt might have a squeak at a decent price in the last...
In the GN I have three against the field:
The Druids Nephew - Won as it liked a the Festival, just the trip the question
Spring Heeled - Layed out for the race, the trainer doesn't have hundreds of horses to judge his level of form with and Lord Windermere didn't run brilliantly in the Gold Cup but the horse has an interesting profile
Mon Parrain - Top Trainer, Course Form, Best Young Jockey in the weighing room but is a difficult horse to get "right" at 50-1 he could be a very decent long shot
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 9:44:19 GMT 1
Ballynagour Neverownup Parsnip Pete
Beware " good things" that have had hard races at Cheltenham
Good luck all
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Post by dugnet on Apr 9, 2015 9:52:27 GMT 1
Ballynagour Neverownup Parsnip Pete Beware " good things" that have had hard races at Cheltenham Good luck all Ted - Horses that ran at Cheltenham have a better strike rate (over 50%) than most realise, this "they've had a hard run a the Festival" is a little bit of a myth. But sound views there
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buckers
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by buckers on Apr 9, 2015 9:52:45 GMT 1
Balthazar King for me
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 10:01:32 GMT 1
Ballynagour Neverownup Parsnip Pete Beware " good things" that have had hard races at Cheltenham Good luck all Ted - Horses that ran at Cheltenham have a better strike rate (over 50%) than most realise, this "they've had a hard run a the Festival" is a little bit of a myth. But sound views there If you've got the stats to back up your view then go for it ...there are a couple of races where class will probably pull the chelts runners through .... I'd rather have menorah at 8s and / or ballynagour at 20s... Fresh and trained for the race... Than SC or Holywell at 2s Who have run their hearts out up the chelts hill .. But that's just me
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 10:03:48 GMT 1
In terms of the national... I think people are overlooking last years winner pineau de re who will be cherry ripe and has the course n distance form !! Shutthefrontdoor will probs end up 4 or 5 to one which will be the worst value since racing began !!
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Post by dugnet on Apr 9, 2015 10:20:09 GMT 1
Ted - Horses that ran at Cheltenham have a better strike rate (over 50%) than most realise, this "they've had a hard run a the Festival" is a little bit of a myth. But sound views there If you've got the stats to back up your view then go for it ...there are a couple of races where class will probably pull the chelts runners through .... I'd rather have menorah at 8s and / or ballynagour at 20s... Fresh and trained for the race... Than SC or Holywell at 2s Who have run their hearts out up the chelts hill .. But that's just me Fair points...I like value over shorties and your assessment of the Holywell Race is well made, both Menorah and Ballynagour wouldn't be a surprise. Pineau in the GN is also an interesting view...another horse will be a dual winner some day
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 10:28:33 GMT 1
Again it's about value ..p d r is four times the price of Shutthefrontdoor which has won an Irish national over 3 miles 5
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Post by dugnet on Apr 9, 2015 10:38:01 GMT 1
Shutthefrontdoor might well win but the McCoy factor will have a major impact and as you say the price will be silly. As with most things there must be some value that will be overlooked in the race, although as the "village" has become larger value seems to be harder to find (compared to 15 years or so ago)
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Post by gledholt terrier on Apr 9, 2015 10:51:23 GMT 1
In terms of the national... I think people are overlooking last years winner pineau de re who will be cherry ripe and has the course n distance form !! Shutthefrontdoor will probs end up 4 or 5 to one which will be the worst value since racing began !! Despite owning a leg of one, or maybe it's forelock, I know sod all about horses. However, for the past couple of years I've done well at the GN by following a feature in The Times which eliminates horses through various criteria - including last years winner (which, from memory, the article had as 2nd most likely) You are buggered if one of the main criteria for elimination doesn't work (age particularly), but with a big field and decent each way odds, I've profited. Hopefully, they will do the column again this year
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Post by canterburyterrier on Apr 9, 2015 10:54:07 GMT 1
Bet Victor are paying out for the first six places in the National. That should make for one ore two long odd ew bets being good value.
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Post by Colt Seavers on Apr 9, 2015 11:20:48 GMT 1
Be careful putting Horse Racing related topics on the main board as the fun destroying admin are likely to obliterate it into obscurity without any notification.
Get your national meeting off to a flyer as Vibrato Vatalto will win the first. 9/4 looks very generous to me.
hard to look past Hargam in the 2.15. Hardish race at Chelts, and if coming out ok then would only need to be 85% to put this field to bed. Maybe doubles with Vibrato.
Big Race. Silviniaco Conti to bounce back. If the gold cup was run anywhere else other than Cheltenham this horse would be champ by now. Never wins at Cheltenham, likes falt tracks such as Kempton and Haydock and Aintree is a similar course. I think he will be run slightly more prominent today and will bag another Betfred Bowl.
3 closely matched Horses in the 3.25. Temptation is to go for Rock on Ruby , coming here fresh, but the fact he was just touched off in this last year by The New One , who I believe flatters his rating , puts me off. So I am tentatively going for Artic Fire to prevail, with Ruby on board, will play the waiting game too perfection.
Fox Hunters. First opportunity to see this years National Fences. Pick a runner that is up front and out of the way of danger. On that advice, last years winner Warne gets the vote. Has had a prep run between the flags, winning that race and although beaten prior to that by subsequent Cheltenham Winner On The Fringe, anyone playing a waiting game in such a incident prone race could encounter numerous traffic problems. Warne jumped like a stag in this last year and has been laid out to repeat that display.
16.40 giving Royal Regatta another chance. Desperately unlucky when emptying out like a bucket with no bottom last time out, with the race at his mercy and hopefully will be more suited by today's conditions.
17.15 Katgary finally got off the mark last month for Paul Nicholls, seems to put in his best performance around this time of the year and at 16/1 could be good value from the bottom of the handicap.
Good luck Guys.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 11:39:19 GMT 1
in the GN I have
The Druids Nephew Rubi Light
Will probably both fall at the first, such is my luck.
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Post by Headless Chicken on Apr 9, 2015 12:54:55 GMT 1
I'm off tomorrow and before I even start my ticket and train travel will have set me back about about £150, so any decent tips would be appreciated
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 13:57:44 GMT 1
If you've got the stats to back up your view then go for it ...there are a couple of races where class will probably pull the chelts runners through .... I'd rather have menorah at 8s and / or ballynagour at 20s... Fresh and trained for the race... Than SC or Holywell at 2s Who have run their hearts out up the chelts hill .. But that's just me Fair points...I like value over shorties and your assessment of the Holywell Race is well made, both Menorah and Ballynagour wouldn't be a surprise. Pineau in the GN is also an interesting view...another horse will be a dual winner some day Depends which type of race this stat is based on. But one race is a no no and that's the front few from the Gold Cup for horses that go onto todays 3 miler. BUT, horses that have run in and not been involved at the business end (ie once their chance has gone and not given a flogging) have come here and done the business. I can see Silvi running well today as he was cooked 5/6 out and came home in his own time. Numerous runners go from one to the next and hold their form. Todays 4yo hurdle a prime example when you look back through the records. Equally, the Red Rum chase, runners from the Grand Annual come on and run well here. Think the motto is, the more attritional nature of race at either meeting, the more likely that the form WONT hold up. 2-2m4f races the form will hold up, especially now with a three week gap.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 14:04:35 GMT 1
PS - my outsider of the day :
SURF AND TURF 4.40 40/1 EW. Very consistent and has run well twice around here. Not out of the frame since 2013, albeit running in lower grades. But often these type of horses have hit the frame in this race. Far worse long-shots around.
the front two in the Foxhunters are obvious and will be hard to beat, but throw into the mix LAST TIME D'ALBAIN at 14s. I've been tipped this by a very good judge of the Irish pointing/hunters scene.
Agree that MASTER MALT at 20/s is a cracking price. How many times do we see JP's second/third colours passing the post in front ? Jonjo has had the winner of this FOUR times. APACHE JACK at 20s with Ruby in the plate interesting back over hurdles and on a nice mark.
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Post by Colt Seavers on Apr 9, 2015 15:35:22 GMT 1
Fuck me. Second time in a month that Ruby has cost me a small fortune.
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Post by Manx Terrier on Apr 9, 2015 15:49:33 GMT 1
If I wanted a good chance of making money from betti g the last race I'd choose would be the Grand National. There are 40 runners! I'd choose a race where there were only 5 or 6. I'll still betting on it though as for excitement there's nothing to beat it.
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 16:26:52 GMT 1
If I wanted a good chance of making money from betti g the last race I'd choose would be the Grand National. There are 40 runners! I'd choose a race where there were only 5 or 6. I'll still betting on it though as for excitement there's nothing to beat it. I disagree .. historically the grand national has been a great race for people who know a little about racing .. just because there have been so many you can put a line through .. isn't as easy now they have changed all the fences I m o
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Post by Chips Longhorn on Apr 9, 2015 16:46:37 GMT 1
PS - my outsider of the day : SURF AND TURF 4.40 40/1 EW. Very consistent and has run well twice around here. Not out of the frame since 2013, albeit running in lower grades. But often these type of horses have hit the frame in this race. Far worse long-shots around. the front two in the Foxhunters are obvious and will be hard to beat, but throw into the mix LAST TIME D'ALBAIN at 14s. I've been tipped this by a very good judge of the Irish pointing/hunters scene. Agree that MASTER MALT at 20/s is a cracking price. How many times do we see JP's second/third colours passing the post in front ? Jonjo has had the winner of this FOUR times. APACHE JACK at 20s with Ruby in the plate interesting back over hurdles and on a nice mark. Awesome tipping
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Post by canterburyterrier on Apr 9, 2015 16:49:31 GMT 1
PS - my outsider of the day : SURF AND TURF 4.40 40/1 EW. Very consistent and has run well twice around here. Not out of the frame since 2013, albeit running in lower grades. But often these type of horses have hit the frame in this race. Far worse long-shots around. the front two in the Foxhunters are obvious and will be hard to beat, but throw into the mix LAST TIME D'ALBAIN at 14s. I've been tipped this by a very good judge of the Irish pointing/hunters scene. Agree that MASTER MALT at 20/s is a cracking price. How many times do we see JP's second/third colours passing the post in front ? Jonjo has had the winner of this FOUR times. APACHE JACK at 20s with Ruby in the plate interesting back over hurdles and on a nice mark. Awesome tipping Picked two winners myself today - no idea about this so went with Surf and Turf. Great tip.
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chinaski
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Post by chinaski on Apr 9, 2015 16:52:23 GMT 1
PS - my outsider of the day : SURF AND TURF 4.40 40/1 EW. Very consistent and has run well twice around here. Not out of the frame since 2013, albeit running in lower grades. But often these type of horses have hit the frame in this race. Far worse long-shots around. the front two in the Foxhunters are obvious and will be hard to beat, but throw into the mix LAST TIME D'ALBAIN at 14s. I've been tipped this by a very good judge of the Irish pointing/hunters scene. Agree that MASTER MALT at 20/s is a cracking price. How many times do we see JP's second/third colours passing the post in front ? Jonjo has had the winner of this FOUR times. APACHE JACK at 20s with Ruby in the plate interesting back over hurdles and on a nice mark. Excellent tip. Was frantically trying to back it on my phone just as they went off arrrrgh!!
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Post by Colt Seavers on Apr 9, 2015 17:03:28 GMT 1
PS - my outsider of the day : SURF AND TURF 4.40 40/1 EW. Very consistent and has run well twice around here. Not out of the frame since 2013, albeit running in lower grades. But often these type of horses have hit the frame in this race. Far worse long-shots around. the front two in the Foxhunters are obvious and will be hard to beat, but throw into the mix LAST TIME D'ALBAIN at 14s. I've been tipped this by a very good judge of the Irish pointing/hunters scene. Agree that MASTER MALT at 20/s is a cracking price. How many times do we see JP's second/third colours passing the post in front ? Jonjo has had the winner of this FOUR times. APACHE JACK at 20s with Ruby in the plate interesting back over hurdles and on a nice mark. What a great shout Surf and Turf was. Wish I could boast having a bit of the 33's but I took my bat and ball home after Arctic Fire and Warne tipped up. Great call.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2015 22:50:36 GMT 1
Got a bit of indigestion after that nice juicy steak
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Post by Boothys Knees on Apr 10, 2015 8:22:18 GMT 1
If I wanted a good chance of making money from betti g the last race I'd choose would be the Grand National. There are 40 runners! I'd choose a race where there were only 5 or 6. I'll still betting on it though as for excitement there's nothing to beat it. I disagree .. historically the grand national has been a great race for people who know a little about racing .. just because there have been so many you can put a line through .. isn't as easy now they have changed all the fences I m o Couldn't agree more. Had lots of success on the National. A very trend driven race for those who can be arsed delving in to it. Off tomorrow on a stag do. Gonna be messy and busy.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 9:23:12 GMT 1
I'm off tomorrow and before I even start my ticket and train travel will have set me back about about £150, so any decent tips would be appreciated As a polar opposite to my outsider yesterday GLINGERBURN 9/4 Coral is the Nap. Highest rated novice hurdler in the UK, Nicky Richards bypassed Chelters for this, he's a good 'un and nothing to touch him apart from Qewy who is the one for the forecast.
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Post by canterburyterrier on Apr 10, 2015 13:41:11 GMT 1
This is what I have gone for today
1:40 The Saint James (outsider Parrty rock) 2:15 Glingerburn 2:50 Carole's Destrier (although the whole world seems to be tipping Saphir Du Rheu - which will probably win it its makes it round) 3:25 Al Ferof 4:05 Theatre Guide (ew)
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Post by Headless Chicken on Apr 10, 2015 14:31:30 GMT 1
I'm off tomorrow and before I even start my ticket and train travel will have set me back about about £150, so any decent tips would be appreciated As a polar opposite to my outsider yesterday GLINGERBURN 9/4 Coral is the Nap. Highest rated novice hurdler in the UK, Nicky Richards bypassed Chelters for this, he's a good 'un and nothing to touch him apart from Qewy who is the one for the forecast. Knob Never in it.
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Post by wildbillthetownfan on Apr 10, 2015 19:04:17 GMT 1
For the big one tomorrow!! i have had two bets Al Co at 25/1 and Cause of Causes at 18/1. Loads a money!!.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 10, 2015 21:28:34 GMT 1
I fancy 2 from the bottom of the handicap, Soll and Royal Knight but you can make a case for loads, lots of luck required and only small stakes in such a wide open race. In other races I fancy Seedling 1.30, Roserrow 5.10 and Miss Crick 5.40 all E/W. Good luck.
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