Great piece in today's Times (missing some good graphics/stats)
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Quick quiz question: who are the only team to beat Wolverhampton Wanderers home and away this season?
Nope, it’s not one of the big six. It’s Huddersfield. That’s right, the side who have just been relegated from the Premier League while we were still in March, took six points off the mightily impressive Wolves.
So how did it comes to this? For this week’s Game Dissected we try to work out why, having done well last season, Huddersfield have struggled this time around.
Oh, they’re just rubbish
Another quiz question: name 11 Huddersfield players. I’ll be honest, I’ve just tried and despite being a sports journalist who writes a weekly column about football I only got to 15.
The reason for this point is that I think we — us, the media, and you, the neutral fan — are sometimes guilty of just dismissing teams like Huddersfield as “a bit crap”. They don’t have many star players or household names, they are near the bottom of the table, what else is there to say?
I watched and read a lot of the reaction to their relegation and there was a tone of “oh bless them” to it all. And when asked about the solutions going forward the response from many ex-players was “they need to spend money”.
But they don’t want to spend money. On reaching the Premier League, Dean Hoyle, the chairman, said the club wouldn’t spend big and, while they have made notable signings, Huddersfield have been prudent in their financial outlay in the past two seasons. Recent data shows that their wage bill for the past season — £63 million — is the lowest in the Premier League. Brighton & Hove Albion were next with £78 million while Stoke City, relegated last season, spent £94 million.
So, how did this well-run club with a load of players you’ve never heard of get relegated? And how did they survive last year?
The graphic below illustrates a very simple point. Goals.
Of the teams to have played in the two seasons Huddersfield have been in the Premier League they are 20 goals shy of the next team in the list.
While goals haven’t been their strength for a while it is not for want of trying — whenever I have watched Huddersfield they do create chances (they have created more (508) than Burnley (494) in the past two seasons) it has just been that key finish which has been missing, as suggested by their poor conversion rate — despite having more shots than both Burnley and Brighton.
To compare those three teams when you think of goals, Brighton have Glenn Murray and Burnley have had Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes. All three would likely start for Huddersfield ahead of Laurent Depoitre, Steve Mounié or Elias Kachunga (they are Huddersfield’s strikers).
Karlan Grant, the 21-year-old forward who scored twice against West Ham recently, is a promising player and, signed for a fee believed to be around £2 million from Charlton in January, represents the kind of shrewd business that Huddersfield aim to do. He could be an excellent player in the Sky Bet Championship next season.
Another interesting statistic with goals scored is penalties. Since the start of the 2017-18 season Huddersfield have been awarded two penalties. Burnley have also only had two penalties (maybe it’s a conspiracy against northern teams?) while in just one season Wolves (four) and Cardiff (three) have been awarded more.
Now obviously you have to be in the box to win penalties but I can think of at least one example — James Milner’s handball in Liverpool’s 1-0 win — where Huddersfield can count themselves unlucky to not get a spot kick.
So what about at the back? Well, the statistics are less stark, as the graphics below show.
Since the start of last season they are on par with relegation rivals with 15 clean sheets and 117 goals conceded.
But defending has been a strength, particularly under previous manager David Wagner, who had his side well drilled, particularly at home. Last season a late Raheem Sterling goal denied Huddersfield a draw against free-scoring Manchester City at home but they did then pick up away draws against City and Chelsea which helped them survive. And they beat Manchester United at home and, as discussed, were unlucky not to get a point at home to Liverpool this season.
So, what changed?
Having looked more generally at their stats during their time in the Premier League the graphic below shows the differences between this season and last.
If goals and quality strikers have always been a problem then it has become something of a disaster this season — which is why the signing and early displays of Grant will give fans some reasons to be hopeful.
But what is interesting is that despite scoring fewer goals and having a worse shot conversion rate they have created more chances. Thirty-one more chances to be exact. And there have been 141 more passes and crosses into the opposition box and 83 more touches in the opposition box.
Could it be that in attempting to move away from that more pragmatic style last season they have come undone? I remember watching several Huddersfield games last season where, having been impressed by their organised defensive work against the big teams, they then struggled when they were presented with a side who they could, if they wanted to, attack.
And then it is perhaps no surprise that forward players struggle to take chances when it is not part of their game plan. One 0-0 home draw against Swansea City last season (they got the same results at home against Southampton and Burnley) was particularly startling — Huddersfield facing ten men for 79 minutes (Jordan Ayew was sent off early on), creating lots of chances but never looking like scoring.
Perhaps Wagner and, in turn, new manager Jan Siewert, have thought they needed to be bolder, and
try to attack more? Maybe they thought the sensible approach wouldn’t work a second time? I was surprised when I looked up these statistics — but I have thought that at times they have seemed less organised, less resolute. In Saturday’s 2-0 defeat by Crystal Palace they had a number of good chances but in truth Palace could (and should) have scored more.
Perhaps that explains the final statistic in the above graphic. Not only have they conceded six more goals but this time last season they had dropped seven points from winning positions — this season it is 16. If they had held on to half of those points they would be still very much in with a chance of survival.
Forgetting the game against West Ham (3-1 up with 15 minutes left only to lose 4-3) two games stick out from that point of view. A 2-1 home defeat to Brighton in which they led in the first minute and another loss at home to Burnley, the same score, where they took the lead in the 33rd minute. In both games Huddersfield had a man sent off in the first half.
In terms of the players it is interesting to note that by this stage last season Aaron Mooy — a key man in midfield — had played 2531 minutes and created 45 chances while this seasons figures are 38 chances from 1959 minutes. His absence over the Christmas period, missing ten games, coincided with Huddersfield picking up just one point in the Premier League — a 0-0 draw at Cardiff.
Mooy starred in Huddersfield’s 2-0 away win at Wolves, scoring twice in what was arguably their best performance of the season — combining effective attacking (they had more possession, 55 per cent, and more shots on target; six) with their usual solid defending.
Their average position map from that game is above, showing a back three, attacking full backs in the form of Florent Hadergjonaj (33) and Erik Durm (37) and Jonathan Hogg (6) and Philip Billing (8) as two central midfielders. That set up allowed Mooy (10) and Alex Pritchard (21) to create and counterattack behind lone striker Mounié (24).
Compare that nicely structured formation to the one from their home defeat against Newcastle, also above. There was no Mooy but also a lack of structure. They had more possession (73 per cent) and 12 shots but lost the game 1-0. This was perhaps another example of Huddersfield forgetting the style and system that had served them so well, and not being clinical enough to justify it.
Last seasons statistics also show that
Tom Ince — sold in the summer to Stoke City — had been a key man last season, playing 2274 minutes and creating 17 chances (second behind Mooy) and also having 17 shots on target, the joint most with striker Mounié.
Ince is one of those infuriating-but-does-make-things-happen players and when he moved to the Championship last summer there was little surprise. But perhaps Huddersfield miss him. He is a player a little like Alex Pritchard. The attacking midfielder/winger has created 26 chances this season (second behind Mooy) and had
11 shots on target (third behind Mounié and Mooy) but has played 1844 minutes this season though, unlike Mooy, hasn’t been injured.
As well as feeling they have been a little dismissed as a team this season I also think they are a much better side than their 14 points suggest — in some areas of the game they have improved. It’s just that it’s not been enough to counter a downfall in what they did best. And the luck has perhaps not been on their side — sadly I can’t get the statistics for luck.
Perhaps they can still show their ability in their final six games? A notable performance against Liverpool at the end of the month would certainly get everyone’s attention. Until now their efforts in the Premier League have been a little underappreciated — surviving last season was a remarkable achievement. Let’s hope if — and when — they return to the top-flight, their performances make us pay a bit more attention.
