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Post by andyeastleake on Jul 16, 2020 13:46:39 GMT 1
Much more confident now that there are only two games left. We'll get the point that we need, although we might not even need it as I can't see all of the four clubs below us getting the necessary points to overhaul us.Surely doesn't need to be all of them? Just three out of five (if you include a points deducted Wigan). Assuming we get nowt something like the following needs to occur. Charlton draw with / beat Wigan Wigan beat a barely recognisable Fulham team. Hull or Luton pick up either 4 points (& of course they meet making that more likely for one of them). I'm struggling a little to see why so many on here feel the above seems so unlikely. Plus there is always the chance of fate playing the cruelest trick and Leeds lose to Charlton to send us down. I think we'll need something.
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Post by araucaria on Jul 16, 2020 13:58:51 GMT 1
Betting on Championship relegation is suspended apparently and has been for some time. On Oddschecker the 20 bookies listed show no odds, but the two on the far right, which I never normally look at, are quoting. Betfair Exchange has Barnsley 1-16 Hull 4-11 Luton 4-7 Charlton 13-8 Wigan 17-10 Town 44-5 (but it had us at something like 3-1 yesterday)
Does nearly 9-1 make sense? Did Brum's late equaliser make that much difference?
Hull are 17-10 and Luton 13-8 on Saturday and Wigan are favourites to win at Charlton, but not odds-on. WBA are 4-5, which means that we are close to evens not to lose.
8-0 on Tuesday perhaps means little on Saturday when it starts at 0-0.
Recalling a failed attempt to stave off our 2000-01 relegation by betting on it in order to jinx it and 'winning' at 33-1, I suppose it better to trust our instincts than the bookies.
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Post by malcolmbrown on Jul 16, 2020 14:03:41 GMT 1
When they play Leeds, I think Leeds will be already up and resting. Not if there is a title to play for. I don’t think there is any player who would take it easy if you are in with a shout of winning the league. It’s part of being a competitive footballer. They’ll go all out to finish champions. Competitive footballer, what's one of them? 🤔
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Post by Camel Grabber on Jul 16, 2020 14:08:30 GMT 1
Typical town, cant score, can't create, struggle at home to Luton Town. We will now go and win 3-0 or something tomorrow against West Brom.
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rocky
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by rocky on Jul 16, 2020 15:21:04 GMT 1
Much more confident now that there are only two games left. We'll get the point that we need, although we might not even need it as I can't see all of the four clubs below us getting the necessary points to overhaul us.Surely doesn't need to be all of them? Just three out of five (if you include a points deducted Wigan). Assuming we get nowt something like the following needs to occur. Charlton draw with / beat Wigan Wigan beat a barely recognisable Fulham team. Hull or Luton pick up either 4 points (& of course they meet making that more likely for one of them). I'm struggling a little to see why so many on here feel the above seems so unlikely. Plus there is always the chance of fate playing the cruelest trick and Leeds lose to Charlton to send us down. I think we'll need something. That's how I see it too Andy. It's Hull v Luton that worries me. The winner of that only needs a draw in their last game to get to 49. If it's a draw, they both need to win their last game. The loser won't finish above us, so if we assume Barnsley won't either, that's 2 places taken. I think we're vulnerable to 3rd bottom. People are just assuming Wigan will beat Charlton, but it's not certain. They're on a great run, but it will come to and end at some point. If Charlton win, we'd need another point to finish above Wigan. If Charlton draw, they go to 48 with a better GD. We definitely need another point in my book.
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Post by BlueValour on Jul 16, 2020 17:02:44 GMT 1
Betting on Championship relegation is suspended apparently and has been for some time. On Oddschecker the 20 bookies listed show no odds, but the two on the far right, which I never normally look at, are quoting. Betfair Exchange has Barnsley 1-16 Hull 4-11 Luton 4-7 Charlton 13-8 Wigan 17-10 Town 44-5 (but it had us at something like 3-1 yesterday) Does nearly 9-1 make sense? Did Brum's late equaliser make that much difference? Hull are 17-10 and Luton 13-8 on Saturday and Wigan are favourites to win at Charlton, but not odds-on. WBA are 4-5, which means that we are close to evens not to lose. 8-0 on Tuesday perhaps means little on Saturday when it starts at 0-0. Recalling a failed attempt to stave off our 2000-01 relegation by betting on it in order to jinx it and 'winning' at 33-1, I suppose it better to trust our instincts than the bookies. I got a saver on with Sky Bet at 12-1 after the Luton defeat and that still seems a fair price. It is going to take an unlikely series of results for us to go down. I don't see us getting anything on Friday. Whether we get a point at Millwall will depend on them not having a shout at the playoffs IMHO.
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Post by greyhoundkev on Jul 16, 2020 17:13:13 GMT 1
Surely doesn't need to be all of them? Just three out of five (if you include a points deducted Wigan). Assuming we get nowt something like the following needs to occur. Charlton draw with / beat Wigan Wigan beat a barely recognisable Fulham team. Hull or Luton pick up either 4 points (& of course they meet making that more likely for one of them). I'm struggling a little to see why so many on here feel the above seems so unlikely. Plus there is always the chance of fate playing the cruelest trick and Leeds lose to Charlton to send us down. I think we'll need something. That's how I see it too Andy. It's Hull v Luton that worries me. The winner of that only needs a draw in their last game to get to 49. If it's a draw, they both need to win their last game. The loser won't finish above us, so if we assume Barnsley won't either, that's 2 places taken. I think we're vulnerable to 3rd bottom. People are just assuming Wigan will beat Charlton, but it's not certain. They're on a great run, but it will come to and end at some point. If Charlton win, we'd need another point to finish above Wigan. If Charlton draw, they go to 48 with a better GD. We definitely need another point in my book. Only need another point if Wigan beat Fulham? That isn't a given whatever team Fulham put out!
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Post by marshterrier on Jul 16, 2020 19:10:00 GMT 1
I've voted YES but it's going to be very squeaky as I think were on 48 barring a complete change in mentality and injection of bravery.
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Post by Christ in Shades (art) on Jul 17, 2020 6:51:53 GMT 1
Barnsley and Hull are gone, you don't lose 8-0 with a credible chance of staying up. It's the last spot that we need to avoid. Do the biz tonight and we're safe.
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Post by kennyk2 on Jul 17, 2020 7:30:13 GMT 1
Oh how I wish for just one season of mid table indifference!
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Post by joeyjoneslocker on Jul 17, 2020 8:15:45 GMT 1
Oh how I wish for just one season of mid table indifference! Nah. We wouldn’t have it any other way. Its the Town way.
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Post by lochnessterrier on Jul 17, 2020 8:19:54 GMT 1
I've always felt that if you get to 50 points you've earned the right to stay up and 9 times out of ten it works out that way.
This season 49, or even 48, might be enough. If we survive with 49 I consider us to be lucky, if we survive with 48 VERY lucky.
For God's sake Town, just dig up the performance of a lifetime tonight and settle all our nerves!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 8:24:45 GMT 1
Betting on Championship relegation is suspended apparently and has been for some time. On Oddschecker the 20 bookies listed show no odds, but the two on the far right, which I never normally look at, are quoting. Betfair Exchange has Barnsley 1-16 Hull 4-11 Luton 4-7 Charlton 13-8 Wigan 17-10 Town 44-5 (but it had us at something like 3-1 yesterday) Does nearly 9-1 make sense? Did Brum's late equaliser make that much difference? Hull are 17-10 and Luton 13-8 on Saturday and Wigan are favourites to win at Charlton, but not odds-on. WBA are 4-5, which means that we are close to evens not to lose. 8-0 on Tuesday perhaps means little on Saturday when it starts at 0-0. Recalling a failed attempt to stave off our 2000-01 relegation by betting on it in order to jinx it and 'winning' at 33-1, I suppose it better to trust our instincts than the bookies. I got a saver on with Sky Bet at 12-1 after the Luton defeat and that still seems a fair price. It is going to take an unlikely series of results for us to go down. I don't see us getting anything on Friday. Whether we get a point at Millwall will depend on them not having a shout at the playoffs IMHO. Luton are beating Hull no doubts, we need a point from two. Then if Charlton lose to Wigan they'd have to beat Leeds. We want Wigan to win tomorrow. By tomorrow night we will be evens to go down (we lose tonight and Luton beat Hull tomorrow) there's still 7/1 available on Betfair Exchange somehow.
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Post by otium (EPBS) on Jul 17, 2020 9:02:47 GMT 1
Yes. Looking at the other's fixtures i think weve already got enough points. But I think we'll win at Millwall if their chance of top 6 has gone by then, which it could very well have done. And I think we can get a point on friday night too as WBA will be really feeling the pressure. Theyve been top 2 for so long now but they know just one slip up and its probably 3rd place for them. As I had said before Slapps, you and I on football are miles apart. Why on earth do you think the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years will get 4 points? I will take one and think we would be very lucky to get that.
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Post by softboy on Jul 17, 2020 9:52:37 GMT 1
Not sure it is the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years - take the goalkeeper, not the best we have ever had but not sure he is one of the worst either. But I guess we all have our opinions.
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Post by townrwe on Jul 17, 2020 9:58:46 GMT 1
By the skin of our teeth on goal difference i think.
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Post by northnottsblue on Jul 17, 2020 10:03:54 GMT 1
Yes. Looking at the other's fixtures i think weve already got enough points. But I think we'll win at Millwall if their chance of top 6 has gone by then, which it could very well have done. And I think we can get a point on friday night too as WBA will be really feeling the pressure. Theyve been top 2 for so long now but they know just one slip up and its probably 3rd place for them. As I had said before Slapps, you and I on football are miles apart. Why on earth do you think the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years will get 4 points? I will take one and think we would be very lucky to get that. 1977 11th in division 4. 91st at one point I’d take this team to beat that lot any day of the week
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Post by Captainslapper on Jul 17, 2020 10:27:52 GMT 1
Yes. Looking at the other's fixtures i think weve already got enough points. But I think we'll win at Millwall if their chance of top 6 has gone by then, which it could very well have done. And I think we can get a point on friday night too as WBA will be really feeling the pressure. Theyve been top 2 for so long now but they know just one slip up and its probably 3rd place for them. As I had said before Slapps, you and I on football are miles apart. Why on earth do you think the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years will get 4 points? I will take one and think we would be very lucky to get that. Id only fancy us to win at millwall IF they have already lost all hope of top 6. Just think psychologically it would be very hard for them to get up for that game. Tonights a tough one. They NEED to win so that kind of pressure can really weigh a team down. Longer we can stay in the game, the more jittery they will get. Think theyll take the initiative too, which will help us. btw this team doesnt even come close to being the weakest in the last 45 years!!
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Post by huddstownonly on Jul 17, 2020 10:34:12 GMT 1
Barnsley almost certainly gone now after losing to Leeds. The rest of the places are a bigger question though Hull do not look good. Wigan will not go down. So we are very touch and go - a point or two probably needed - if we have two losses I think we may go down. Strange things could happen for the teams below if they think they have a chance of saving themselves and seeing us lose tonight if we were to would give them hope - we need a point tonight at least
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Post by worthington on Jul 17, 2020 10:41:09 GMT 1
We need one point from the last 2 games
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Post by lossiemouthtownfan on Jul 17, 2020 10:46:32 GMT 1
Negative goal difference. Got promoted with one and a slightly less bad one might keep us up.
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Post by slackjaw on Jul 17, 2020 11:54:50 GMT 1
As I had said before Slapps, you and I on football are miles apart. Why on earth do you think the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years will get 4 points? I will take one and think we would be very lucky to get that. Id only fancy us to win at millwall IF they have already lost all hope of top 6. Just think psychologically it would be very hard for them to get up for that game. Tonights a tough one. They NEED to win so that kind of pressure can really weigh a team down. Longer we can stay in the game, the more jittery they will get. Think theyll take the initiative too, which will help us. btw this team doesnt even come close to being the weakest in the last 45 years!! I think we’re under far more pressure than them certainly got more to lose.We need to win so will that pressure weigh us down?
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Post by lochnessterrier on Jul 17, 2020 12:51:39 GMT 1
I just hope we take them on and give it a right go. I can handle a defeat if we did our best against a good team. If we try to dig in for 0-0 we are asking for trouble.
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Post by bluestripe on Jul 17, 2020 13:24:33 GMT 1
Id only fancy us to win at millwall IF they have already lost all hope of top 6. Just think psychologically it would be very hard for them to get up for that game. Tonights a tough one. They NEED to win so that kind of pressure can really weigh a team down. Longer we can stay in the game, the more jittery they will get. Think theyll take the initiative too, which will help us. btw this team doesnt even come close to being the weakest in the last 45 years!! I think we’re under far more pressure than them certainly got more to lose.We need to win so will that pressure weigh us down? I think that is your perspective as a Town fan, but if they don't win tonight, automatic promotion is no longer in their hands. If we lose tonight, safety will still be in our hands in the final game. Therefore I would argue they have more to lose tonight.
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Post by oxfordlurcher on Jul 17, 2020 13:29:31 GMT 1
It's a no from me. Looking at fixtures, Barnsley down, 2 wins for Luton (one against Hull) making them safe, no more points for Hull, an already promoted Leeds roll over to Charlton on the last day just to send us down.
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Post by turbo2 on Jul 17, 2020 13:31:46 GMT 1
I think we’re under far more pressure than them certainly got more to lose.We need to win so will that pressure weigh us down? I think that is your perspective as a Town fan, but if they don't win tonight, automatic promotion is no longer in their hands. If we lose tonight, safety will still be in our hands in the final game. Therefore I would argue they have more to lose tonight. just been saying the same to my chestwanking friends. WBA are under massive pressure. Drop points tonight and Brentford are in the driving seat. We need to get in their faces from the off!!!! it would be ironic for leeds to get promoted at the Mac
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Post by bluestripe on Jul 17, 2020 13:54:46 GMT 1
It's a no from me. Looking at fixtures, Barnsley down, 2 wins for Luton (one against Hull) making them safe, no more points for Hull, an already promoted Leeds roll over to Charlton on the last day just to send us down. So you would swap form, positions and future games with Luton and Charlton?
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Post by otium (EPBS) on Jul 17, 2020 14:07:38 GMT 1
As I had said before Slapps, you and I on football are miles apart. Why on earth do you think the weakest team we have fielded in 45 years will get 4 points? I will take one and think we would be very lucky to get that. 1977 11th in division 4. 91st at one point I’d take this team to beat that lot any day of the week I said weakest...not worst.
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Post by japanterrier on Jul 17, 2020 14:18:06 GMT 1
When they play Leeds, I think Leeds will be already up and resting. Not if there is a title to play for. I don’t think there is any player who would take it easy if you are in with a shout of winning the league. It’s part of being a competitive footballer. They’ll go all out to finish champions. Lids will not be champions. did you see how shit they were yesterday? not a chance. Anyway we're staying up. No drama.
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Post by royrace on Jul 17, 2020 15:24:43 GMT 1
It's a no from me. Looking at fixtures, Barnsley down, 2 wins for Luton (one against Hull) making them safe, no more points for Hull, an already promoted Leeds roll over to Charlton on the last day just to send us down. That's my concern, I could see it happening. If Leeds are home and hosed Charlton would be favourites in that game as far as I'm concerned.
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