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Post by runner76 on Feb 13, 2023 22:54:49 GMT 1
Based on last 10 seasons below points were enough to stay up (these are actual points or the lowest that 4th bottom would have needed):
21/22 - 38 Points
20/21 - 44 points
19/20 - 49 points
18/19 - 41 points
17/18 - 42 points
16/17 - 51 points
15/16 - 41 points
14/15 - 42 points
13/14 - 44 points
12/13 - 55 points
I’m thinking this year 45 should do it……so 17 points needed; 5 wins and a few draws. UTFT
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Post by Orinoco on Feb 14, 2023 15:37:37 GMT 1
I've gone for 45, should be safe on that amount, it's a weird league though, anything could happen!!
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Post by runner76 on Feb 14, 2023 15:45:14 GMT 1
Likewise I am thinking 45......cannot see it being over 50 this time.......still, would prefer we target 50 points,,....!!  |
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Post by durhamterrier on Feb 14, 2023 16:51:30 GMT 1
Probably worth considering the few years when points deductions have come into play and the team going down 3rd bottom would actually have been lower without it .
47 for me . Think there are some really poor teams down there , including us, and it’ll be the least shit that stay up
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Post by Christ in Shades (art) on Feb 14, 2023 16:56:02 GMT 1
Who stayed up on 38 points in this league?
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rickrast
Jimmy Nicholson Terrier
Posts: 1,529 
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Post by rickrast on Feb 14, 2023 17:07:12 GMT 1
Always the possibility that GD might prove critical.
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Post by softboy on Feb 14, 2023 17:12:09 GMT 1
More then bottom 3!
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Post by drumriggend on Feb 14, 2023 17:12:15 GMT 1
Generally about 7 or 8..
Then I struggle to stay up..
Oh sorry thought it said pints..
🍻
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Post by themanfromatlantis on Feb 14, 2023 21:44:44 GMT 1
Let’s hope Hawkeye isn’t the deciding factor for our season.
I appreciate there’s 45 other games to consider, but that was just a complete and utter shambles.
If we do survive, it’ll be a remarkable season, when you consider the injuries we’ve had as well.
UTT!!!
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Post by runner76 on Feb 16, 2023 10:35:16 GMT 1
....on the plus side, I think our best run over 15 games (in this awful season....) was 18 points, which by my maths and hope, would be enough to stay up.......#believe |
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Post by artysid on Feb 16, 2023 11:12:08 GMT 1
I think we're in a bit of a pickle
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Post by stinkypete on Feb 16, 2023 11:45:38 GMT 1
Last night has completely deflated me after Warnocks arrival.
We’re so so poor, think we’re gonna need another 20 points so 6 wins 2 draws. Just can’t see it, nothing other than a win on Saturday will do!.
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Post by runner76 on Feb 16, 2023 12:02:28 GMT 1
I think we're in a bit of a pickle yeah, better than boring mid table though...... |
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Post by runner76 on Feb 22, 2023 21:51:52 GMT 1
Average looking around 49 points....I can't see it being that high this year, but if so, that means we need 5 wins and a 3 draws........doable........
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Post by drayltonboy (independent) on Feb 23, 2023 7:47:42 GMT 1
Happy to wait and see
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Post by Scott Chegg on Feb 23, 2023 8:08:55 GMT 1
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Post by dezzly on Feb 23, 2023 8:35:20 GMT 1
I think 50 points would just do it.Any less and be touch and go.
Had a look through fixtures and I can see us possibly getting to 48(4 wins and 5 draws)
Not sure if that would be enough tbh.
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Post by 3Pipe on Feb 23, 2023 9:00:15 GMT 1
Arithmomania
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Post by 3Pipe on Feb 23, 2023 9:01:12 GMT 1
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Post by Baby-face Frankenstein on Feb 23, 2023 9:51:16 GMT 1
Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and my bottom three without looking at Town's games would be:
Cardiff C 49 pts
Rotherham 48 pts
Blackpool 46 pts
For me, any less than 49 would mean relegation and then it would be down to goal difference with Cardiff (almost 100 years after the first crucial mathematical outcome!)
So 50 to give us a reasonable chance
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Post by runner76 on Feb 23, 2023 9:56:43 GMT 1
It’s not the first time I’ve been called a Sesame Street character 😂 |
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irverino
Jimmy Glazzard Terrier
Posts: 4,994
Member is Online
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Post by irverino on Feb 23, 2023 10:41:09 GMT 1
Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and my bottom three without looking at Town's games would be: Cardiff C 49 pts Rotherham 48 pts Blackpool 46 pts For me, any less than 49 would mean relegation and then it would be down to goal difference with Cardiff (almost 100 years after the first crucial mathematical outcome!) So 50 to give us a reasonable chance We we went down on goal difference in 72/73 & Cardiff benefitted again, having watched with great joy Sunderland beating L33ds in the FA Cup final on Saturday 5th May, Town fans had to wait until Monday 7th May (Thursday 10th was possible replay date) to find out if they were to be relegated two years running when Sunderland visited Ninian Park with the hosts needing a point to stay up..........the game ended 1-1 & also Burnley were promoted as Champions. |
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Post by hypotenuse on Feb 23, 2023 10:47:56 GMT 1
I think 50 points would just do it.Any less and be touch and go. Had a look through fixtures and I can see us possibly getting to 48(4 wins and 5 draws) Not sure if that would be enough tbh. That is exactly what I came up with. 4 wins and 5 draws (being very optimistic) but I think it will be just short of the 49 pts required. It only dawned on me yesterday that, of our remaining 14 fixtures, 11 are against the current top 12. Don’t think even NW will be able to keep us up - I’d give us no better than a 15% chance of staying up but that was below 10% after Stoke. |
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Post by 3Pipe on Feb 23, 2023 10:56:28 GMT 1
It’s not the first time I’ve been called a Sesame Street character 😂  |
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Post by detox on Feb 23, 2023 11:00:36 GMT 1
Yeah but...do we want this to go right to the last game?
No thanks, I want this sewn up before then, in fact before we play at Cardiff .
So that's 19 points in 12 games, please...God...
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Post by Mastercracker on Feb 23, 2023 12:12:38 GMT 1
I don't get this fret about playing the top 12. The top 3 ok yeah not ideal but after that this league is crap. And it's that tight someone in the top 12 now could be 17th by the time we play them.
Blackburn are 4th and they've scored 5 more goals than we have and conceded 6 less in over 2/3rds of a season, and we've had 2 managerial shockers in that time.
We can beat anyone now we have a proper manager. We can also still lose to anyone if we don't perform.
Sadly, Cardiff and Rotherham starting to win is making the points tally required look higher than it once did.
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rickrast
Jimmy Nicholson Terrier
Posts: 1,529
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Post by rickrast on Feb 23, 2023 12:16:37 GMT 1
Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and my bottom three without looking at Town's games would be: Cardiff C 49 pts Rotherham 48 pts Blackpool 46 pts For me, any less than 49 would mean relegation and then it would be down to goal difference with Cardiff (almost 100 years after the first crucial mathematical outcome!) So 50 to give us a reasonable chance 49....real chance of relegation, and 50...real chance of survival? Good point! |
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Post by SN0W on Feb 23, 2023 12:51:24 GMT 1
How many points? - All Of Them.... every last one.
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Post by Baby-face Frankenstein on Feb 23, 2023 12:51:29 GMT 1
Just had a look at the remaining fixtures and my bottom three without looking at Town's games would be: Cardiff C 49 pts Rotherham 48 pts Blackpool 46 pts For me, any less than 49 would mean relegation and then it would be down to goal difference with Cardiff (almost 100 years after the first crucial mathematical outcome!) So 50 to give us a reasonable chance 49....real chance of relegation, and 50...real chance of survival? Good point! Can't see it being anything but really close. But I did say that anything less than 49 would mean relegtion. I was the Championship Standings Prediction winner in 2022, so that has to give me some credibility  |
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Post by runner76 on Feb 23, 2023 13:33:11 GMT 1
BUT if this league this year is as shit as everyone says, how come must think we need 49/50 points when 7 of the last 10 seasons 45 was enough?……
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