Tinpot
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I'm really tinpot
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Post by Tinpot on Jul 7, 2020 14:34:49 GMT 1
That doesn't take into account that some teams will play each other though. Anyone from Middlesbrough (3rd bottom) up could still finish above Millwall (9th), but a lot of those sides have to play against each other & so will inevitably take points off each other. Millwall are not just unlikely to be relegated - it is (barring any points deductions) impossible. Nonetheless, with just 5 games to go, anyone* from Birmingham up could (with a good run & a lot of luck elsewhere) still be promoted & anyone from Blackburn down could (with a bad run & results going against them) go down. Our opponents tonight are one of 6 sides that could still leave the division in either direction. Crazy how competitive this league is. * except WiganI wondered that as well, but I asked the guy on Twitter and he says that it accounts for all remaining fixtures and not all teams being able to pick up maximum points. He is the Head of Data Analysis at the Press Association so I daren't push him further and risk showing myself up! Maybe I don't have as much time on my hands as I thought! I "tried to get Preston relegated" using the predictor on that Grimsby Town forum but didn't manage. Then again, I'm assuming that Wigan's appeal against the 12 point deduction is not going to be successful, so that might be where the discrepancy is.
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Post by Venezuelan Pete on Jul 7, 2020 14:41:20 GMT 1
I wondered that as well, but I asked the guy on Twitter and he says that it accounts for all remaining fixtures and not all teams being able to pick up maximum points. He is the Head of Data Analysis at the Press Association so I daren't push him further and risk showing myself up! Maybe I don't have as much time on my hands as I thought! I "tried to get Preston relegated" using the predictor on that Grimsby Town forum but didn't manage. Then again, I'm assuming that Wigan's appeal against the 12 point deduction is not going to be successful, so that might be where the discrepancy is. You must have already been putting this reply together when I edited my post. FYI: Edit: I went back to him and he's since clarified that the table is in fact based purely on the max/min points per team and doesn't consider individual head-to-head fixtures
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Post by Torquayterrier on Jul 7, 2020 15:43:32 GMT 1
Or to put it simply, it's wrong then :-)
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jonbrno
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 7, 2020 22:32:52 GMT 1
A win on Friday now would have us virtually mathematically safe, presuming Wigan's 12 point deduction stands.
We'd be 9 points clear of Luton with 3 games left and a vastly superior goal difference.
We'd be 9-12 points clear of Wigan (depending how they do against QPR tomorrow) and they would have 4 games left.
We'd be 8 points clear of Barnsley, they would have 4 games left - two of which are away to Leeds and away to Brentford.
I won't relax til it's mathematically certain but a win on Friday would be a huge step. We just need to bloody score!
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Post by Made In Yorkshire on Jul 7, 2020 22:36:32 GMT 1
I think at the end of the season we'll look back and think these last two draws (and points) have been pretty important.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 10:47:30 GMT 1
It looks like they have set the final game fixtures for 7:30 pm kickoff now www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/scores-fixtures/2020-07?filter=fixturesI believe there are still some TV matches to be decided for the weekend of 18th of July, especially as it is FA Cup S/F weekend and Sky have some slots to fill. Wouldn't be surprised if our match against West Brom is on TV at some point that weekend. Barnsley will probably move to Sunday as they play Leeds the previous Thursday.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 10:50:47 GMT 1
and we still don't know what is happening with Sheffield Wednesday!
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Post by Bassingham Terrier on Jul 8, 2020 10:53:05 GMT 1
and we still don't know what is happening with Sheffield Wednesday! Twice on here people have quoted Nixon tweets about Wigan and I have asked them to ask Nixon what is going on with Wendies, but there seems to be no-one picking up the gauntlet. I don't do Twitter so am in no position to do it myself.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 11:23:10 GMT 1
and we still don't know what is happening with Sheffield Wednesday! Twice on here people have quoted Nixon tweets about Wigan and I have asked them to ask Nixon what is going on with Wendies, but there seems to be no-one picking up the gauntlet. I don't do Twitter so am in no position to do it myself. A Wigan fan has asked for you No answer yet though
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 11:30:34 GMT 1
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Post by Bassingham Terrier on Jul 8, 2020 12:20:59 GMT 1
Well that sounds all very subterfuge-like. Surely it's in everybody's best interests and up to the EFL to make an announcement ASAP?
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Post by softboy on Jul 8, 2020 17:07:02 GMT 1
If Wednesday had been 20 points above relegation it would all have been done and dusted by now. Points deduction and we move on.
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dezzly
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Post by dezzly on Jul 9, 2020 9:51:03 GMT 1
So tight down the bottom,had a look at fixtures and if wigan do get them 12 points I have them to go down but only just.Can see town picking up 4 or 5 more points and either been enough.Utterly ridiculous to make a prediction but reckon be something like this Boro 54 Birmingham 53 Town 52 Stoke 51 Charlton 49 Hull 49 Wigan 48 Luton 45 Barnsley 43
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Post by yappledapple on Jul 9, 2020 10:32:54 GMT 1
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Post by Farsley Terrier (UK product) on Jul 9, 2020 10:37:15 GMT 1
I can still see us going down. So tight at the bottom.
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Post by Bassingham Terrier on Jul 9, 2020 10:51:52 GMT 1
So tight down the bottom,had a look at fixtures and if wigan do get them 12 points I have them to go down but only just.Can see town picking up 4 or 5 more points and either been enough.Utterly ridiculous to make a prediction but reckon be something like this Boro 54 Birmingham 53 Town 52 Stoke 51 Charlton 49 Hull 49 Wigan 48 Luton 45 Barnsley 43 Honestly can't see Wigan going down, even with the -12. They've got 53 points now, so call it 41. They'll beat Luton, Charlton and Barnsley, so there's 50 points.
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dezzly
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Post by dezzly on Jul 9, 2020 11:08:11 GMT 1
So tight down the bottom,had a look at fixtures and if wigan do get them 12 points I have them to go down but only just.Can see town picking up 4 or 5 more points and either been enough.Utterly ridiculous to make a prediction but reckon be something like this Boro 54 Birmingham 53 Town 52 Stoke 51 Charlton 49 Hull 49 Wigan 48 Luton 45 Barnsley 43 Honestly can't see Wigan going down, even with the -12. They've got 53 points now, so call it 41. They'll beat Luton, Charlton and Barnsley, so there's 50 points. Yeh I did think they could possibly beat all those teams too but just thought probably likely to slip up in 1 got them down for couple wins and draw against those 3 then lose to Fulham.Lets face it it probably won’t end up like that but just think it goes to show that town should have enough even with 1 win and 1 draw possibly even with just the one win or a couple note draws. Had seen few people say need to win 2 and draw 1 to stay up but with the fixtures teams have can’t see that been there case.
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Post by conman on Jul 9, 2020 12:22:15 GMT 1
I can still see us going down. So tight at the bottom. Who said the old Dunkirk spirit was dead and dusted..
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 13:04:30 GMT 1
I don't think Wigan will win all their next 3. Got both Barnsley and Charlton away who will be scrapping for their lives so think they will drop points in one of those. I think Fulham may be resting players on the last day for the playoffs, so I think they will win that.
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Post by leedsroadrob on Jul 9, 2020 23:07:39 GMT 1
They'll do well to beat Luton tbh.
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jonbrno
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 11, 2020 18:40:10 GMT 1
Looking at the remaining fixtures it's going to be so tight. Any one of 10 clubs could go down. Barnsley's fixtures are awful so they have to be most in danger, so think it will be them and then 2 from 9.
It's made all the more complicated by clubs in danger playing each other, reduction in home advantage with empty stadiums, uncertainty over who will be on the beach before the play offs, and unknowns over point deductions.
Looks like it could all go down to the last minutes of the last game and goal difference could well be crucial. Strap in folks.
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Post by Bassingham Terrier on Jul 11, 2020 19:05:14 GMT 1
Updated run-in at a glance...
STOKE Birmingham City (h) Bristol City (a) Brentford (h) Forest (h)
MIDDLESBROUGH Reading (a) Cardiff (h) Sheffield Wednesday (a)
WIGAN Hull City (h) Charlton (a) Fulham (h)
HULL CITY Wigan (a) Luton (h) Cardiff (a)
LUTON TOWN Queens Park Rangers (h) Hull (a) Blackburn (h)
TOWN Sheffield Wednesday (a) WHA (h) Millwall (a)
BIRMINGHAM Stoke City (a) Charlton Athletic (h) PNE (a) Derby (h)
CHARLTON Birmingham (a) Wigan (h) Leeds (a)
BARNSLEY Leeds United (a) Forest (h) Brentford (a)
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Post by ACW on Jul 11, 2020 21:56:57 GMT 1
Updated run-in at a glance... STOKEBirmingham City (h) Bristol City (a) Brentford (h) Forest (h) MIDDLESBROUGHReading (a) Cardiff (h) Sheffield Wednesday (a) WIGANHull City (h) Charlton (a) Fulham (h) HULL CITYWigan (a) Luton (h) Cardiff (a) LUTON TOWNQueens Park Rangers (h) Hull (a) Blackburn (h) TOWNSheffield Wednesday (a) WHA (h) Millwall (a) BIRMINGHAMStoke City (a) Charlton Athletic (h) PNE (a) Derby (h) CHARLTONBirmingham (a) Wigan (h) Leeds (a) BARNSLEYLeeds United (a) Forest (h) Brentford (a) Looking at that lot, Barnsley have a shocking run in, but anything can happen. Lots of six pointers too. I always feared we would need a result away at Millwall on the final day, and I still think we will.
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Post by Tim Nice But Dim on Jul 11, 2020 22:04:54 GMT 1
I have always thought it will go down to the last game of the season and Millwall might need a result to make to the play offs,
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Post by mids on Jul 11, 2020 22:05:32 GMT 1
After the way the played yesterday I'd settle for it still being in our own hands on the last day...and ideally Millwall having nothing to play for
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terrier10
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Post by terrier10 on Jul 11, 2020 22:12:46 GMT 1
Irrespective of what happened last night. Let’s take the first 6 games out of it and look at the the 37 Games since this management team took over.
P W D L GD Points Town 37 12 10 15 -10 46 (5 since restart)
Sheff W 37 12 10 15 -7 46 (7 since restart)
Millwall 37 13 14 10 5 53 (8 since restart)
Yes, on paper the WBA game is one you look at and think will be tough but don’t see any reason why if the team play like they have the ability to there isn’t points to be taken from Massive and Millwall.
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Post by ACW on Jul 11, 2020 22:18:17 GMT 1
Irrespective of what happened last night. Let’s take the first 6 games out of it and look at the the 37 Games since this management team took over. P W D L GD Points Town 37 12 10 15 -10 46 (5 since restart) Sheff W 37 12 10 15 -7 46 (7 since restart) Millwall 37 13 14 10 5 53 (8 since restart) Yes, on paper the WBA game is one you look at and think will be tough but don’t see any reason why if the team play like they have the ability to there isn’t points to be taken from Massive and Millwall. Fair points, but goals win games and we don't score goals. We don't even create chances. That's my worry. Didn't someone on here say recently we've scored three goals in the last five games? All of them against a disinterested Birmingham side, and none from open play. It's far from over, and there are plenty of twists and turns to come, but Town are going to have to dig deep. Very deep.
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jonbrno
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 12, 2020 22:25:40 GMT 1
I think if we don't get another point we're very likely down. A win would probably make us safe, and a point may mean it comes down to goal difference, which doesn't look great:
Sheff Wed -5 Wigan -7 Stoke -10 Charlton -11 Middlesbrough -13 Town -16 Birmingham -17 Hull -18 Barnsley -21 Luton -30
Am praying Millwall have nothing to play for the last day of the season, if it comes to that.
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boooothy
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Post by boooothy on Jul 12, 2020 22:32:37 GMT 1
That’s exactly how i read it, if Millwall can make the play offs were screwed. If they can’t we should be ok.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 9:56:03 GMT 1
Only 3 games left but still nobody can get relegated after the upcoming midweek fixtures, it is that close.
Barnsley seem doomed with their fixtures and Wigan probably need to win all 3 of their games to survive (2 wins and a draw may be enough with their GD).
1 win for Town should be enough.
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