digs
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by digs on Jul 13, 2020 10:24:50 GMT 1
Only 3 games left but still nobody can get relegated after the upcoming midweek fixtures, it is that close. Barnsley seem doomed with their fixtures and Wigan probably need to win all 3 of their games to survive (2 wins and a draw may be enough with their GD). 1 win for Town should be enough. So we seem just as doomed as Barnsley? |
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Post by Waterloo Terrier on Jul 13, 2020 10:40:12 GMT 1
Not sure if this will help or not but there are boffins in America who do modelling for the final positions in the Championship. They have us as about a 10% chance to go down and Barnsley as good as down. That 10% seems a bit low to me. But always good to get an outside view of the situation. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/ |
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rocky
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by rocky on Jul 13, 2020 11:35:12 GMT 1
Massive week coming up with;
Wigan v Hull and Birmingham v Charlton midweek and
Charlton v Wigan and Hull v Luton on Saturday.
It's so difficult to work out what's the best result in most of those for us. Obviously Birmingham, but what of the others? If they're all draws, that doesn't cut anyone adrift, yet if they're all wins, that's more points gained in total. Wigan are the best team down there and I'm beginning to think it might be better for them to win these 2 games because of the damage that does to the others.
Trouble is, there's still Hull v Luton and Luton v QPR (who have 5 defeats from 6 since the re-start!).
So, what are people thinking in terms of what's the best results in these games for us?
On points needed, as it's so close, I don't see anyone being relegated with 50 points but it's hard to see Town getting 3 more points from what's left.
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Post by teddytheterrier on Jul 13, 2020 11:44:00 GMT 1
A win and a draw keeps us hope. Maybe a win. Let's hope Millwall don't turn up on the last day. We need at least a point 2moro I think. West Brom will hammer us so it could all go.e down to how we respond on the last day. Tbf to the Cowleys after a shocking result we normally bounce back with a performance. The Wednesday game us huge. Get something and we might be okay.
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Post by stinkypete on Jul 13, 2020 12:35:19 GMT 1
We need 3 more points and then other results are irrelevant, with those other fixtures it’s a slim chance that Luton,Barnsley,Hull,Charlton and Wigan would get to 50 points.
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Post by TommyTheTerrier on Jul 13, 2020 12:39:27 GMT 1
Just heard a stat: with three rounds of fixtures still to play, there isn't a single club mathematically guaranteed to be in the division next season
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Post by Made In Yorkshire on Jul 13, 2020 12:42:44 GMT 1
Not sure if this will help or not but there are boffins in America who do modelling for the final positions in the Championship. They have us as about a 10% chance to go down and Barnsley as good as down. That 10% seems a bit low to me. But always good to get an outside view of the situation. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/While that table shows Wigan with 12 points deducted there is no reference to Sheffield Wednesday and their potential punishment. |
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Post by Made In Yorkshire on Jul 13, 2020 12:45:22 GMT 1
Just heard a stat: with three rounds of fixtures still to play, there isn't a single club mathematically guaranteed to be in the division next season Looking at the table in a very simplistic way I can see why, however I have this gut feeling that once a mathematician looked at it then it isn't correct. |
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Post by worthington on Jul 13, 2020 13:01:39 GMT 1
Cannot see town gaining any points from the remaining 3 games.
So with others below us playing each other (including Wigan in that) I reckon we will be relegated now
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 13:01:49 GMT 1
Just heard a stat: with three rounds of fixtures still to play, there isn't a single club mathematically guaranteed to be in the division next season Aside from Norwich, Coventry and Rotherham  |
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Post by Venezuelan Pete on Jul 13, 2020 13:03:35 GMT 1
Massive week coming up with; Wigan v Hull and Birmingham v Charlton midweek and Charlton v Wigan and Hull v Luton on Saturday. It's so difficult to work out what's the best result in most of those for us. Obviously Birmingham, but what of the others? If they're all draws, that doesn't cut anyone adrift, yet if they're all wins, that's more points gained in total. Wigan are the best team down there and I'm beginning to think it might be better for them to win these 2 games because of the damage that does to the others. Trouble is, there's still Hull v Luton and Luton v QPR (who have 5 defeats from 6 since the re-start!). So, what are people thinking in terms of what's the best results in these games for us? On points needed, as it's so close, I don't see anyone being relegated with 50 points but it's hard to see Town getting 3 more points from what's left. At this stage the absolute best outcome is for the teams below us to pick up as few points as possible, and in the case of two of them playing each other, the lowest-placed team to lose. It doesn't matter how many teams go above us, or move further away from us, as long as there's 3 below us. As things stand, we should want: Hull to beat Wigan Birmingham to beat Charlton Hull to beat Luton Charlton to beat Wigan |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2020 13:04:50 GMT 1
Just heard a stat: with three rounds of fixtures still to play, there isn't a single club mathematically guaranteed to be in the division next season Looking at the table in a very simplistic way I can see why, however I have this gut feeling that once a mathematician looked at it then it isn't correct. Yes QPR are safe and cannot make the playoffs. Barnsley and Wigan both cannot catch QPR (if 12pt deduction is taken into account). Luton and Hull play each other so both cannot catch QPR. |
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jonbrno
Tom Cowan Terrier
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 13, 2020 14:12:46 GMT 1
Massive week coming up with; Wigan v Hull and Birmingham v Charlton midweek and Charlton v Wigan and Hull v Luton on Saturday. It's so difficult to work out what's the best result in most of those for us. Obviously Birmingham, but what of the others? If they're all draws, that doesn't cut anyone adrift, yet if they're all wins, that's more points gained in total. Wigan are the best team down there and I'm beginning to think it might be better for them to win these 2 games because of the damage that does to the others. Trouble is, there's still Hull v Luton and Luton v QPR (who have 5 defeats from 6 since the re-start!). So, what are people thinking in terms of what's the best results in these games for us? On points needed, as it's so close, I don't see anyone being relegated with 50 points but it's hard to see Town getting 3 more points from what's left. At this stage the absolute best outcome is for the teams below us to pick up as few points as possible, and in the case of two of them playing each other, the lowest-placed team to lose. It doesn't matter how many teams go above us, or move further away from us, as long as there's 3 below us. As things stand, we should want: Hull to beat Wigan Birmingham to beat Charlton Hull to beat Luton Charlton to beat Wigan It's really confusing. If we get zero points then it becomes very difficult to find a combination of results that will make us safe, as the sides below us playing each other makes it inevitable someone will pick up points. It's totally in our own hands though - if we get 0 points from our last 4 matches then obviously we will deserve to be relegated. Wigan have to be strong favourites to pick up 3 points against Hull - Wigan are top 3 in form table, and Hull are bottom. I would fancy Charlton to get at least a point against Birmingham, which would put them above us on goal difference. It should be a lot clearer after Wednesday, for better or worse. If Hull, Charlton and Barnsley lose all their remaining matches we would be safe. |
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digs
Andy Booth Terrier
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Post by digs on Jul 13, 2020 14:19:47 GMT 1
At this stage the absolute best outcome is for the teams below us to pick up as few points as possible, and in the case of two of them playing each other, the lowest-placed team to lose. It doesn't matter how many teams go above us, or move further away from us, as long as there's 3 below us. As things stand, we should want: Hull to beat Wigan Birmingham to beat Charlton Hull to beat Luton Charlton to beat Wigan It's really confusing. If we get zero points then it becomes very difficult to find a combination of results that will make us safe, as the sides below us playing each other makes it inevitable someone will pick up points. It's totally in our own hands though - if we get 0 points from our last 4 matches then obviously we will deserve to be relegated. Wigan have to be strong favourites to pick up 3 points against Hull - Wigan are top 3 in form table, and Hull are bottom. I would fancy Charlton to get at least a point against Birmingham, which would put them above us on goal difference. It should be a lot clearer after Wednesday, for better or worse. If Hull, Charlton and Barnsley lose all their remaining matches we would be safe. So if those three teams on less points than us lose all their remaining matches,then we would be safe? Genius😂 |
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Post by Venezuelan Pete on Jul 13, 2020 14:23:50 GMT 1
At this stage the absolute best outcome is for the teams below us to pick up as few points as possible, and in the case of two of them playing each other, the lowest-placed team to lose. It doesn't matter how many teams go above us, or move further away from us, as long as there's 3 below us. As things stand, we should want: Hull to beat Wigan Birmingham to beat Charlton Hull to beat Luton Charlton to beat Wigan It's really confusing. If we get zero points then it becomes very difficult to find a combination of results that will make us safe, as the sides below us playing each other makes it inevitable someone will pick up points. It's totally in our own hands though - if we get 0 points from our last 4 matches then obviously we will deserve to be relegated. Wigan have to be strong favourites to pick up 3 points against Hull - Wigan are top 3 in form table, and Hull are bottom. I would fancy Charlton to get at least a point against Birmingham, which would put them above us on goal difference. It should be a lot clearer after Wednesday, for better or worse. If Hull, Charlton and Barnsley lose all their remaining matches we would be safe. Let's assume Wigan's points deduction sticks. If so, then absolute worst case scenario (aka we don't get another point) we need these teams to pick up no more than the following points: Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 3 Luton - 2 However because of goal difference we could probably get away with Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 4 Luton - 3 Every additional point that we gain adds one more to the above permutation. |
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jonbrno
Tom Cowan Terrier
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 13, 2020 14:31:48 GMT 1
So if those three teams on less points than us lose all their remaining matches,then we would be safe? Genius😂 Fair point - my mind's frazzled with the permutations  |
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Post by conman on Jul 13, 2020 15:43:19 GMT 1
It's really confusing. If we get zero points then it becomes very difficult to find a combination of results that will make us safe, as the sides below us playing each other makes it inevitable someone will pick up points. It's totally in our own hands though - if we get 0 points from our last 4 matches then obviously we will deserve to be relegated. Wigan have to be strong favourites to pick up 3 points against Hull - Wigan are top 3 in form table, and Hull are bottom. I would fancy Charlton to get at least a point against Birmingham, which would put them above us on goal difference. It should be a lot clearer after Wednesday, for better or worse. If Hull, Charlton and Barnsley lose all their remaining matches we would be safe. Let's assume Wigan's points deduction sticks. If so, then absolute worst case scenario (aka we don't get another point) we need these teams to pick up no more than the following points: Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 3 Luton - 2 However because of goal difference we could probably get away with Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 4 Luton - 3 Every additional point that we gain adds one more to the above permutation. And every goal we concede in those defeats makes the probably get away with less probable.. |
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Post by Larry David on Jul 13, 2020 16:35:14 GMT 1
It's really confusing. If we get zero points then it becomes very difficult to find a combination of results that will make us safe, as the sides below us playing each other makes it inevitable someone will pick up points. It's totally in our own hands though - if we get 0 points from our last 4 matches then obviously we will deserve to be relegated. Wigan have to be strong favourites to pick up 3 points against Hull - Wigan are top 3 in form table, and Hull are bottom. I would fancy Charlton to get at least a point against Birmingham, which would put them above us on goal difference. It should be a lot clearer after Wednesday, for better or worse. If Hull, Charlton and Barnsley lose all their remaining matches we would be safe. Let's assume Wigan's points deduction sticks. If so, then absolute worst case scenario (aka we don't get another point) we need these teams to pick up no more than the following points: Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 3 Luton - 2 However because of goal difference we could probably get away with Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 4 Luton - 3 Every additional point that we gain adds one more to the above permutation. I think we may be ok on 47... controversial |
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Post by Bassingham Terrier on Jul 13, 2020 16:39:42 GMT 1
Let's assume Wigan's points deduction sticks. If so, then absolute worst case scenario (aka we don't get another point) we need these teams to pick up no more than the following points: Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 3 Luton - 2 However because of goal difference we could probably get away with Wigan - 4 Barnsley - 4 Luton - 3 Every additional point that we gain adds one more to the above permutation. I think we may be ok on 47... controversial If we remain on 47, then our GD is going to deteriorate by a minimum of three, and more likely by a significant amount more. I wouldn't like to chance that. |
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Post by softboy on Jul 13, 2020 19:25:43 GMT 1
and Hull, don't they need at least 2 points, possibly 3 to go above us. I know we played shite on Friday, have 3 very difficult games coming up but before Friday we took 5 points from 3 games, no goals conceded so I think calculations based on us getting no more points are very pesamistic. Apart from Stoke & Luton all the rest were as shite as us at the weekend.
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Post by northnottsblue on Jul 13, 2020 21:00:53 GMT 1
Tomorrow I’m rooting for QPR,Wigan and then that lot down the A62 on Weds.If they all win(the footballing gods are on our side) then the status quo remains the same, even if we get nowt at the MASSIVE.
Soon after kick off we will know what is needed.It’s going to be a tense evening.
Hopefully super Col to set up the winner ten minutes from the end,and then park the bus.
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jonbrno
Tom Cowan Terrier
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Post by jonbrno on Jul 14, 2020 23:02:19 GMT 1
Birmingham v Charlton match tomorrow is so important.
If Charlton lose or draw I can't see them getting ahead of us with their remaining fixtures. Birmingham are pretty useless though.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 14, 2020 23:18:17 GMT 1
Have updated the OP and included Wigan's points deduction as they can no longer finish in the bottom 3. 3 six pointers left now with Birmingham v Charlton tomorrow, and Hull v Luton and Charlton v Wigan at the weekend.
Middlesbrough probably safe now, them and Luton the only ones not facing a team going for promotion on the last day.
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Post by northnottsblue on Jul 14, 2020 23:49:42 GMT 1
Birmingham v Charlton match tomorrow is so important. If Charlton lose or draw I can't see them getting ahead of us with their remaining fixtures. Birmingham are pretty useless though. Absolutely right jonbrno,that game tomorrow night is crucial for Charlton. |
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ambryboy
Jimmy Glazzard Terrier
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Post by ambryboy on Jul 15, 2020 0:14:18 GMT 1
I'm struggling to see past Barnsley, Hull and Town going down.
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Post by conman on Jul 15, 2020 1:03:51 GMT 1
I'm struggling to see past Barnsley, Hull and Town going down. I bet many a Luton fan are thinking the same thing.. |
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Post by BlueValour on Jul 15, 2020 2:54:41 GMT 1
I'm struggling to see past Barnsley, Hull and Town going down. I bet many a Luton fan are thinking the same thing.. Even if we don't get another point the Hatters will need four points from six to get above us. If we get one more point then they will need to win both games. I'd far rather be in our position than theirs. Throw in Wigan's probable points deduction, depending on their appeal, and a possible Wendies' points deduction then, taking everything together, the chances of our escaping relegation are high. |
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Post by conman on Jul 15, 2020 6:49:16 GMT 1
I bet many a Luton fan are thinking the same thing.. Even if we don't get another point the Hatters will need four points from six to get above us. If we get one more point then thy will need to win both games. I'd far rather be in our position than theirs. Throw in Wigan's probable points deduction, depending on their appeal, and a possible Wendies' points deduction then, taking everything together, the chances of our escaping relegation are high. i meant Luton fans thinking Luton Town going down, not us.. |
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Yuta be a terrier
Andy Booth Terrier
That Gary Taylor fletcher will never make a footballer.....
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Post by Yuta be a terrier on Jul 15, 2020 6:51:46 GMT 1
Realistically, if Charlton don't win tonight then we are one clean sheet away from survival.
Wigan are still in the relegation zone because Hull and Luton will pick up at least one more point against each other so Wigan will need something against Charlton at the weekend.
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Post by Larry David on Jul 15, 2020 7:04:10 GMT 1
Surely best result Saturday is a Hull win? Chances of them beating Cardiff away is low
Worst result is a Luton win followed by a draw
Charlton loss or draw tonight and can't see them collecting many more and Wednesday should get a deduction
Personally I think we may be safe now but a point more should do it.
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